Recent US economic data reveal some subtle warning signals. Over the past year, heavy truck sales dropped to 5.1 million units, the lowest since the pandemic in 2020. More importantly, if pandemic factors are excluded, this is the lowest point in the past 8 years.

The story behind the numbers is even more thought-provoking—just in the past 18 months, annual truck sales have declined by about 1.1 million units. This is not a minor fluctuation but a significant downward trend.

History shows us that heavy truck sales are often a leading indicator of economic cycles. Before past recessions, this number would typically signal an early warning. Based on historical patterns, in the next 6 months, the unemployment rate could rise by at least 1.0 percentage points. The labor market is under increasing downward pressure.

For traders concerned with the correlation between macroeconomics and asset prices, these data are worth paying attention to. Rising unemployment often accompanies increased market volatility, and such cycle signals can provide some reference for investment decisions.