Recent US unemployment claims data has attracted a lot of attention. Last week, initial claims were at 214,000, well below the expected 224,000 and better than previous data. At first glance, this is a positive sign, but upon closer inspection, market interpretations can easily go astray.

Let's first look at the actual meaning of the data. What does a lower-than-expected unemployment number imply? It indicates that the labor market still has resilience and the economy has not experienced a rapid downturn. For the Federal Reserve, this signal is quite clear: there is no need for emergency intervention to stabilize the market, but also no reason to continue raising interest rates. Considering that the current high interest rates are already exerting sustained pressure on the entire financial system, as long as employment data remains within control, the window for rate cuts is still open—it's only a matter of time.

So, what is the market's first reaction? Not a sell-off, but a recovery in risk asset sentiment. In the crypto space, you will see short-term rebounds, short covering, and capital flowing back in. Many interpret this as confirmed good news. From a short-term trading perspective, this logic makes sense—indeed, it is somewhat bullish.

The key point is that macro cycles and current positions often have a greater impact than a single data point. What stage is the crypto market in now? It is not the beginning of a bull market, nor the main upward wave, but a typical late-stage bear market with repeated oscillations. The characteristics are four words: easy rebound, hard to sustain.

Whenever macro data slightly leans dovish, there will be cheers, but how long can such a rebound last? That is probably the real question worth pondering.