كيف ستتطور سعر صرف الدولار الأمريكي في عام 2025؟ تحليل اتجاهات العملات المتعددة وأفكار التداول

core logic of the US dollar exchange rate

The essence of the US dollar exchange rate reflects the relative value of the dollar against other currencies. Taking EUR/USD as an example, a quote of 1.04 means 1 euro requires 1.04 dollars to exchange. When this number rises to 1.09, it indicates euro appreciation and dollar depreciation; conversely, a drop to 0.88 signifies euro depreciation and dollar appreciation.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is based on the dollar, combining the euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc with weighted averages. The index’s fluctuations directly reflect the strength or weakness of the dollar relative to these currencies. It is important to note that different central banks’ policy adjustments often differ, so a Fed rate cut does not necessarily lead to a decline in the dollar index; other member countries’ measures should also be considered.

where is the US dollar headed? Technical and fundamental resonance

Recently, the dollar has been declining for five consecutive trading days, with the dollar index falling to around 103.45, a recent low, and effectively breaking below the 200-day moving average—this is generally seen as a bearish signal in technical analysis.

The fundamental factors behind this are also clear: US employment data in March underperformed expectations, reinforcing market expectations of multiple rate cuts by the Fed. As these expectations heat up, US bond yields decline, and the attractiveness of dollar investments diminishes.

Looking ahead to 2025, the dollar index faces triple pressures: first, the direction of the Fed’s monetary policy easing; second, downward revisions of growth expectations due to weak economic data; third, technical rebound risks under current oversold conditions. Overall, the dollar index is likely to maintain a bearish pattern, possibly facing further tests at support levels below 102. Short-term rebounds are possible but unlikely to change the long-term weakness trend.

the 30-year turbulent history of the US dollar

Tracing back to the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971, the dollar index has experienced eight distinct cycle phases:

First wave (1971-1980): The gold standard disintegrated, and the dollar entered a depreciation phase. Nixon abandoned the gold peg, followed by a global oil crisis that pushed inflation higher, with the dollar index bottoming below 90.

Second wave (1980-1985): Fed Chairman Volcker responded with aggressive measures to stagflation, raising the federal funds rate to a historic high of 20%, then maintaining it at 8-10%. The dollar index continued to strengthen to the bull market peak in 1985.

Third wave (1985-1995): The US faced twin deficits (fiscal and trade), entering a decade-long bear market cycle for the dollar.

Fourth wave (1995-2002): During the internet bubble, under Clinton’s leadership, the US economy soared, global capital flowed back into the US, and the dollar index reached a bull market high of 120.

Fifth wave (2002-2010): The internet crash, 9/11, and the 2008 financial crisis hit in succession, coupled with Fed’s quantitative easing, causing the dollar index to hover around 60 at times.

Sixth wave (2011-2020 early): During the European debt crisis and China’s stock market crash, the US remained relatively stable, with the Fed hinting at rate hikes multiple times, strengthening the dollar index.

Seventh wave (early 2020-2022): The COVID-19 pandemic led to unprecedented liquidity release (rates cut to 0%, massive money printing), causing a sharp decline in the dollar index and igniting global inflation.

Eighth wave (early 2022-2024 end): Inflation spiraled out of control, prompting the Fed to aggressively raise rates to a 25-year high and initiate QT (balance sheet reduction). While successful in curbing prices, market confidence in the dollar was also weakened.

analysis of the dollar and major currencies in 2025

EUR/USD: bullish continuation expected

EUR and the dollar index usually have an inverse relationship. If the Fed’s rate cut expectations materialize and US economic growth slows, while the European Central Bank’s policy environment improves and the euro recovers, the euro will gain double support.

Latest trading data shows EUR/USD has risen to 1.0835, demonstrating sustained upward momentum. If it stabilizes at this level, breaking through the psychological barrier of 1.0900 is not unlikely. Technically, previous highs and trendlines may form strong support, with 1.0900 as a key resistance. Once broken, the euro’s rally could accelerate further.

GBP/USD: clear volatility range

The UK and US economies are closely linked, and GBP’s trend is similar to EUR. Market expectations of a slower rate cut by the Bank of England compared to the Fed provide relative support for GBP. If the BoE remains more conservative, GBP/USD is expected to maintain an upward oscillation within 1.25-1.35 in 2025. Policy divergence and risk aversion are main drivers. If the economic paths diverge further, GBP could challenge above 1.40, but political risks and liquidity shocks may cause adjustments.

USD/CNY: range-bound consolidation

USD/CNY is influenced by market supply and demand and US-China policy expectations. Continued Fed rate hikes and China’s economic slowdown pressure the yuan, pushing USD/CNH higher. Meanwhile, China’s central bank’s exchange rate policies also have long-term impacts.

From a technical perspective, USD remains in a range of 7.2300-7.2600, with no short-term breakout momentum. Investors should monitor breakouts of this range—once effectively broken, new trading opportunities will emerge. If USD falls below 7.2260 and technical indicators show oversold reversal signals, short-term rebound buying points may appear.

USD/JPY: downward pressure increasing

USD/JPY is one of the most liquid currency pairs globally. Japan’s January basic wages rose 3.1% year-on-year, a 32-year high, reflecting Japan’s effort to escape long-term deflation and low-wage stagnation. As wages rise and inflation expectations increase, the Bank of Japan may accelerate rate hikes. Geopolitical tensions could further speed up Japan’s monetary normalization.

Expected in 2025, USD/JPY will face downward pressure. Rate cut expectations and Japan’s economic recovery will be key themes. Technically, a break below 146.90 increases the risk of testing lows; to reverse the downtrend, a break above 150.0 is needed.

AUD/USD: solid fundamental support

Australia’s Q4 GDP grew 0.6% quarter-on-quarter and 1.3% year-on-year, both exceeding expectations. January trade surplus rose to 56.2 billion, showing strong fundamentals for the AUD. The Reserve Bank of Australia remains cautious, indicating a low likelihood of rate cuts, supporting a relatively hawkish monetary stance.

Although Australian data is strong, if the Fed implements easing in 2025, a weaker dollar will boost AUD/USD. Global economic uncertainties still warrant caution.

how to seize trading opportunities in the US dollar exchange rate in 2025

Short-term strategy (Q1-Q2): swing trading in a volatile environment

Bullish scenario: Escalation of geopolitical conflicts (e.g., Taiwan Strait tensions) may cause the dollar index to rebound quickly to 100-103; US economic data exceeding expectations (e.g., non-farm payrolls adding over 250,000 jobs) will delay rate cut expectations, supporting the dollar.

Bearish scenario: Continuous rate cuts by the Fed while the ECB’s policy lags, will push the euro higher and the dollar index below 95; US bond market supply pressures (difficulties in treasury auctions) may trigger increased dollar credit risk.

Aggressive traders can short at high and buy at low within the 95-100 range of the dollar index, using MACD divergence, Fibonacci retracement, and other technical signals to catch reversals. Conservative investors should wait and see, keeping an eye on Fed policy clarity.

Medium-long-term strategy (beyond Q3): gradually reduce dollar holdings and shift to non-US assets

As the Fed’s rate cut cycle deepens, US bond yields will decline, and capital may flow into emerging markets or the Eurozone with stronger growth prospects. The global de-dollarization trend, if accelerated (e.g., BRICS countries promoting local currency settlements), will marginally weaken the dollar’s reserve currency status.

Countermeasures: gradually reduce long dollar positions, increase holdings of reasonably valued non-US currencies (yen, AUD) or commodities-related assets (gold, copper).

conclusion

The forecast for the US dollar exchange rate in 2025 will increasingly depend on “data-driven” and “event-sensitive” factors. Only by maintaining trading flexibility and discipline can one capture excess returns amid dollar fluctuations. The market always rewards investors who have a framework and can adapt flexibly.