Wu discusses this week's macro indicators and analysis: Fed meeting minutes, US-Russia-Ukraine trilateral talks, Jackson Hole global Central Bank annual meeting.

Compiled by: GaryMa Wu said Blockchain

Abstract Wu said this week’s macroeconomic indicators and analysis: Although last week’s U.S. July CPI annual rate was lower than expected, the core CPI rose to the highest level since February, and the July PPI annual rate significantly exceeded market expectations. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September; this week, focus will be on the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes, the Jackson Hole global central bank annual meeting, and the trilateral talks between the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine.

Last Week Review

The United States announced that the seasonally adjusted CPI for July increased by 0.2%, with an expectation of 0.20% and a previous value of 0.30%; the unadjusted CPI year-on-year for July was 2.7%, with an expectation of 2.8% and a previous value of 2.7%. The unadjusted core CPI year-on-year for July further rose to 3.1%, reaching a five-month high, exceeding the market expectation of 3.0%.

The U.S. July PPI annual rate is 3.3%, expected to be 2.5%, and the previous value was revised from 2.30% to 2.4%. This significantly exceeds the market expectation of 2.5%, reaching the highest level since February. The U.S. July PPI monthly rate recorded 0.9%, marking the largest increase since June 2022.

China’s M2 money supply annual growth rate in July is 8.8%, expected to be 8.3%.

In 2025, FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expressed the hope to review more economic data before deciding whether to cut interest rates.

In 2027, FOMC voting member and Atlanta Fed President Bostic stated that if the labor market remains solid, he still believes that a rate cut in 2025 would be appropriate.

The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending August 9 was 224,000, expected to be 228,000, and the previous value was revised from 226,000 to 227,000.

Key Events & Indicators This Week August 18

Tripartite talks between the US, Russia, and Ukraine

August 20

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand announces interest rate decision (10:00)

August 21

The Federal Reserve releases the monetary policy meeting minutes (02:00)

In 2027, FOMC voting member and Atlanta Fed President Bostic will speak on the economic outlook (03:00)

The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending August 16 is ( million ) (20:30)

Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, until August 23

August 22

Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting (22:00)