Litecoin Price Prediction: Only $6.3 million flowed in 20 days after the ETF launch, will LTC fall to $80?

Market data from November 2025 shows that the Litecoin ETF launched by Canary Capital attracted only $6.3 million in inflows just 20 days after its listing, making it the worst performing altcoin ETF product of the year. At the same time, the LTC price fluctuated around $95, with technical indicators showing that if it breaks below the key support at $90, it could quickly slide to a low of $80, with a potential fall of 13%.

Analysts point out that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's hawkish statement questioning a rate cut in December triggered over $400 million in long positions being liquidated. Coupled with the Trump administration's trade tensions with China, this has completely shattered expectations for an altcoin season.

Horizontal Comparison of Litecoin ETF Fund Inflows

The Litecoin ETF from Canary Capital was approved in late October, coinciding with the Federal Reserve's meeting, unfortunately facing shocks from macro policy uncertainty. Compared to other altcoin ETFs, the XRP spot ETF has accumulated inflows of $320 million, and the Solana ETF has reached $580 million, while the LTC ETF's scale of only $6.3 million is less than 2% of the former.

The cold reception of funds reflects institutional investors' concerns about the aging narrative of Litecoin: as a veteran token born in 2011, its payment positioning has been diverted by new technologies like the Lightning Network, and the smart contract ecosystem has not kept up in a timely manner. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart pointed out that ETF issuers are reassessing their product lines beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum, and may suspend more altcoin ETF applications in the future.

Litecoin Technical Analysis and Key Price Level Assessment

The daily chart shows that Litecoin fell sharply to $80 on the day of the ETF listing, briefly rebounding to $111, but was then constrained by the continued decline of the 200-day exponential moving average. The current price is consolidating in the $93-$97 range, but a 12% surge in trading volume indicates increased selling pressure, and the relative strength index has fallen below the 14-day average to confirm the downward momentum.

The key support levels are 90 USD (psychological level), 85 USD (previous low), and 80 USD (year-to-date low). If the price falls below 90 USD, it will activate the stop-loss orders of the quantitative model, potentially triggering a 13% instantaneous fall. On the resistance side, 93 USD has shifted from support to resistance, while the 200-day EMA located at 102 USD forms a strong pressure zone.

Key Indicators of Litecoin Market Performance

• ETF inflow: 6.3 million USD (cumulative for 20 days)
• Key support levels: $90, $85, $80
• Recent fall: down 14.4% from $111
• Trading Volume Share: Circulating Market Cap 11%
• RSI Signal: Falls below the 14-day moving average

The Macro Environment's Suppression of the Altcoin Market

The shift in Federal Reserve policy is the core factor suppressing the movement of Litecoin. CME FedWatch Tool shows that the probability of a rate cut in December has plummeted from 88% to 44%, and Boston Fed President Collins has clearly stated that “the threshold for easing policy in the near term is quite high.” This hawkish expectation has driven the dollar index to rebound to 105.8, putting pressure on risk assets in general.

In addition, the Trump administration announced a 15% tariff on digital goods from China, directly impacting the import of mining machine chips and cross-border payment businesses. Historical data shows that during the trade friction period of 2018-2019, Litecoin's performance lagged behind that of Bitcoin by 42%, and the current environment may repeat this pattern.

Stagnation of Litecoin Ecosystem Development and Decline of Institutional Interest

On-chain data confirms Litecoin's predicament: the number of active addresses on the network has stagnated at 280,000 per day, a decrease of 37% from the peak in 2024; the daily number of transactions remains at 120,000, having been surpassed by Bitcoin Cash.

Developer activity is also sluggish, with GitHub commits down 73% in the past six months, and the core team has failed to launch competitive feature upgrades.

In terms of institutional allocation, the open interest of LTC futures on mainstream CEX has dropped to $180 million, accounting for only 0.9% of Bitcoin. The Grayscale Litecoin Trust continues to show a negative premium, with the latest discount rate reaching 15%, reflecting that professional investors are unwilling to pay a premium for exposure.

Litecoin Trading Strategies and Risk Hedging Suggestions

Facing downside risks, investors can consider various response strategies. In terms of hedging strategies, buying put options with a strike price of $80 and a one-month term costs about 4% of the contract value, while selling call options at $100 can construct a risk reversal combination. For spot holders, it is recommended to set a stop-loss order at $90, and if it falls below, to reduce their position by 50%.

More aggressive investors can pay attention to the LTC/BTC trading pair, as the ratio has fallen to a historical low of 0.0009. If Bitcoin's dominance peaks and retreats, there may be a mean reversion opportunity. However, it should be noted that if the overall market falls into a bear market, Litecoin may relatively resist declines due to its low beta characteristics.

When the most anticipated financial innovation encounters the coldest market response, the current state of Litecoin becomes a typical case of how ancient cryptocurrencies seek positioning in a new cycle. The failure of the ETF is not only a setback in product design but also a repricing of the market for single-function tokens. In an era of rising multi-layer blockchain architectures, those projects that cannot continue to evolve, even with a glorious history, find it difficult to escape the fate of being marginalized.