XRP Today News: ETF attracts 13 million but cannot stop The Federal Reserve (FED) panic selling wave.

XRP price has fallen sharply to a critical psychological support level as the entire crypto assets market faces renewed selling pressure, with a slight retracement to $2.1297 on November 20 for a breather. Although the Canary XRP ETF recorded a net inflow of $13 million mid-week, it failed to alleviate market sentiment. The probability of a rate cut by The Federal Reserve (FED) in December plummeted from 50.1% to 32.8%, exacerbating bearish sentiment in the market.

The Federal Reserve (FED) interest rate cut expectations big dump from 94% to 33%

According to the CME's FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut in December dropped from 50.1% on November 18 to 32.8% on November 19. In comparison, on October 17, the probability of a rate cut in December was 93.7%. Since October 17, the price of XRP has decreased by 12.3%, reflecting the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate path on investor demand.

The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in October exacerbated the uncertainty surrounding a rate cut in December, suppressing the demand for Crypto Assets. Policymakers expressed concerns about inflation while noting that the labor market is cooling rather than collapsing. Given the interplay between inflation and the labor market, there are divisions within the committee regarding whether to further cut rates, significantly reducing the likelihood of a rate cut in December.

Renowned crypto assets commentator Paul Barron commented on the market's changing views regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate path, stating: “Market crash: The likelihood of a rate cut in December has dropped sharply to 42% (currently at 33%). The crypto assets market is facing a perfect storm: Today's released FOMC meeting minutes show that Federal Reserve officials have significant disagreements regarding a rate cut in October. Many participants indicated that there is no need for further cuts in 2025. Some officials warned that additional rate cuts could exacerbate inflation.”

In addition, reports regarding the further delay in the release of key economic reports in the United States have intensified the selling pressure. Barron's also commented on the reports of the further delay in the release of key economic data, adding, “Subsequently, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the employment report for October has been completely canceled due to the government shutdown. The data for November will not be released until December 16—after the Federal Reserve's meeting on December 9 and 10. The Federal Reserve is now groping in the fog, lacking critical labor market data.”

The U.S. government shutdown and the delayed release of economic data have significantly impacted the demand for Crypto Assets. Since the government shutdown on October 1, the price of XRP has fallen by 29%. After the government reopened, market sentiment did not improve, and the delayed release of economic data left traders uncertain about the state of the U.S. economy. On November 18, the BTC spot ETF market saw net outflows for the sixth consecutive trading day, putting pressure on market sentiment and setting the tone for Wednesday's trading.

XRP ETF fund inflow is the only highlight

Despite the decreasing likelihood of interest rate cuts by The Federal Reserve (FED), which has led XRP to approach a key support level, the Canary XRP ETF (XRPC) has brought recent recovery hopes. Canary Capital announced the net fund inflow report on Wednesday, November 19, stating: “The XRPC ETF has seen a significant surge for the fifth consecutive day—trading volume exceeding $26.5 million, with net inflow reaching $13 million!”

Although the data on the fifth day showed a slight decline compared to the first day, it still maintained positive growth. Wednesday's data indicated that institutional demand remained strong ahead of the launch of the Franklin XRP ETF (XRPZ) and the Bitwise XRP ETF. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart announced that the Bitwise XRP ETF is about to launch, stating, “It looks like Bitwise Invest is going to launch the XRP ETF tomorrow. The introduction page is already live on the Bloomberg terminal. The stock code is XRP (elite stock code).”

Given the positions of Franklin Templeton and Bitwise Invest in the ETF space, analysts expect their XRP ETF to attract more inflows than the Canary XRP ETF. According to data from VettaFi, Franklin Templeton ranks 19th on the list of ETF issuers by assets under management (AUM), with an AUM of $44.7 billion. Bitwise Asset Management ranks 56th, with an AUM of $5.58 billion. The first to launch the XRP spot ETF, Canary Capital, ranks 231st, with an AUM of only $84.82 million.

The strong demand for XRPC, XRPZ, and XRP is crucial for the recent price trend of XRP. Whether the inflow of ETF funds can offset the selling pressure brought by the uncertainty of The Federal Reserve (FED) policies will determine if XRP can maintain the psychological support level of 2.0 dollars.

Technical Analysis: $2.0 Lifeline

(Source: Trading View)

On November 19, XRP fell by 4.94%, erasing the previous day's gain of 2.49%, closing at $2.1083. The token underperformed compared to the overall Crypto Assets market, which dropped by 1.84%. The selling wave on Wednesday caused the token's trading price to fall well below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), confirming the bearish momentum.

Key technical levels to pay attention to include

support level: 2.0 USD and 1.9 USD

50-day moving average resistance level: 2.4547 USD

200-day moving average resistance level: 2.5520 USD

Resistance Levels: $2.2, $2.35, $2.5, $2.62, $2.8, $3.0 and $3.66

It is worth noting that after the failure to break the upward trend line in October, the downward trend line provided much-needed support in November. A break below the downward trend line would signal greater dumping pressure. XRP is currently positioned on the downward trend line, indicating that the price may fall to $2.0. A break above the $2.2 resistance level may push it up to $2.35. If the price continues to break above $2.35, the 50-day moving average will come into play. After breaking the 50-day moving average, bulls may raise their target price to $2.5.

Future Catalysts and Risk Assessment

Recent catalysts for the price increase include: speeches and policy signals from Federal Reserve officials, the issuance and capital flows of the Franklin XRP ETF and Bitwise XRP ETF, blue-chip companies' views on XRP as a treasury reserve asset, and regulatory milestones (Ripple's application for a U.S. chartered bank license, progress on the Market Structure Bill in Congress).

Bearish scenarios include: hawkish comments from The Federal Reserve (FED) spokespeople, net outflows from the XRP spot ETF report, the U.S. Senate questioning legislation favorable to Crypto Assets, including the “Market Structure Bill”, blue-chip companies downplaying their interest in XRP as a treasury reserve asset, and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) delaying or rejecting Ripple's application for a U.S. chartered banking license. These bearish scenarios could push XRP towards the $2.1 and below trend line. If that trend line is broken, $2.0 will become the next key support level.

Market expectations for a rate cut by The Federal Reserve (FED) in December are gradually weakening, and the delayed release of U.S. economic data are factors that remain unfavorable for XRP in the short term. However, strong demand for the XRP spot ETF could trigger a price rebound. The next 48 hours will determine whether XRP can recover its losses in the fourth quarter. Crucially, a significant influx of funds into the XRP spot ETF could lead to a decoupling from Bitcoin.