VanEck: BTC fell from 120,000 all the way down to 90,000. Who is selling and who is accumulating?

Author: Patrick Bush, Matthew Sigel, Source: VanEck, Translated by: Golden Finance

Key Points Summary

• The “whales” that have held long-term continue to hold, with the amount of Bitcoin held for over 5 years steadily increasing.
• The sell-off is mainly concentrated among mid-term holders, rather than the earliest holding wallet addresses.
• The futures market seems to have reached the bottom, with funding rates and open interest both at oversold levels.

Bitcoin (BTC) investors are feeling panic.

Data source: Glassnode, as of November 13, 2025.

ETP Outflows Lead to Weak Early Market

The price trend over the past 30 days has been particularly unfavorable for Bitcoin holders, with prices dropping by 13% due to immense selling pressure. Since October 10, 2025, the balance of Bitcoin ETP has decreased by 49,300 coins, accounting for about 2% of the total assets under management. Those who bought in when prices were near peak levels have been selling off amid uncertainty over interest rate cuts and unclear prospects for artificial intelligence development. Even more concerning is that many are pointing the finger at early Bitcoin “whales” for the price weakness. For example, a whale from the “Satoshi Nakamoto era” sold $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin in the week of November 14, nearly emptying his entire wallet. Many believe that seasoned whales often signal long-term trends by buying or selling Bitcoin at critical points. As a result, the sentiment in the cryptocurrency community has turned pessimistic, with the fear/greed index hitting its lowest level since the tariff turmoil erupted in March 2025.

Smaller holders will gradually accumulate over 1-2 years, while larger whales will disperse; recent net changes remain flat.

Whale positions are declining in the long term but increasing in the short term.

Data source: Glassnode, as of November 13, 2025.

Rather than assuming that the recent weakness in Bitcoin prices is due to large holders selling off, it is better to comprehensively examine the distribution of fund flows among different holder groups. On-chain data shows that the flow of funds is far more complex than a simple “whale sell-off.” If we observe the holdings of whales with more than 1,000 Bitcoins, we can clearly see that since November 2023, their Bitcoin holdings have been decreasing. In fact, whales holding between 10,000 and 100,000 Bitcoins have reduced their holdings by 6% and 11% over the past 6 and 12 months, respectively. These reductions have been absorbed by the “small whales” holding between 100 and 1,000 Bitcoins. This smaller investor group has increased their holdings by 9% and 23% over the past 6 and 12 months, respectively. For reference, Bitcoin itself has risen by about 170% over the past two years.

In November, the open interest for Bitcoin futures (BTC) increased by 6%.

Short-term holding whales turn into net buyers

Short-term data shows a different situation: some groups of whales have been increasing their holdings of Bitcoin. The group holding between 10,000 and 100,000 Bitcoins has increased their holdings by approximately 3%, 2.5%, and 0.84% over the past 30, 60, and 90 days, respectively. This may reflect the sell-off triggered by tariffs and the subsequent liquidation, which led to a reduction of about 19% in Bitcoin futures open interest within 12 hours, with prices dropping over 20%.

The oldest Bitcoin whales are holding, while mid-term holders are selling.

Data source: Glassnode, as of November 13, 2025.

Mid-term holders are the real sellers

However, simply analyzing “whale data” by holding scale does not provide complete information. This perspective overlooks the process where experienced old whales transfer tokens to new investors. To deepen our understanding, we examined the “last active transfer” time of Bitcoin balances, which indicates the time that has elapsed since the tokens were last transferred. The transfer implies that these tokens are likely to have been sold to different holders.

In the past 30 days, the selling pressure has mainly concentrated on Bitcoin investors who have held for less than 5 years, while those who have held for a longer time mostly maintained or increased their holdings. Notably, in the past 6 months, the ownership structure of holders has shifted from the group holding for 3-5 years to the group holding for 6 months-2 years, indicating a trend of transfer from mid-term holders to new holders.

Among the groups with longer holding periods (i.e., investors who have held their tokens for more than 5 years), the token circulation rate remains relatively low compared to other groups. In contrast, the group with the highest trading volume consists of Bitcoin holders whose last transaction was 3-5 years ago, and the token circulation rate in this range has continued to decline during each research period. Over the past two years, the supply in this range has decreased by 32% due to a large amount of Bitcoin being transferred to new addresses. Considering that these Bitcoins were likely accumulated during the last cycle's downturn, their holders seem to be more inclined towards periodic trading rather than long-term investment.

Meanwhile, the number of bitcoins held for more than 5 years has increased by 278,000 compared to two years ago. This growth reflects the gradual entrance of newer bitcoins into the holding period of over 5 years, rather than a new round of accumulation, but it still indicates that long-term holders remain confident. While more detailed analysis may provide further insights, the overall trend remains encouraging: long-term holders continue to accumulate and hold.

The Bitcoin futures basis has fallen to its lowest level since the autumn of 2023.

Data source: Glassnode, as of November 13, 2025.

Speculative Activity in the Futures Market Resets

One of the best indicators to measure speculative behavior is the annualized basis cost paid by traders willing to go long on Bitcoin perpetual futures (perp). Since perpetual futures never settle, their prices are kept in line with spot prices by charging interest to counterparties. If the price of the perpetual contract is higher than the spot price, the long position in the trade must pay interest proportional to the difference between the spot and perpetual contract prices to the short position. Due to the asymmetric upside potential of cryptocurrencies, the basis of perpetual futures contracts is almost always positive.

When the bullish demand for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin is low, the basis will decrease significantly. Recently, we have seen the open interest in Bitcoin futures plummet, decreasing by 20% in Bitcoin terms and 32% in USD terms since October 9, 2025. This partly explains the sharp decline in the funding rate. Of course, if people are optimistic about Bitcoin, the funding rate will rise rapidly.

In the past, the long-term decline in Bitcoin prices was often accompanied by the outbreak of speculative frenzies, with funding rates for perpetual contracts averaging as high as 40% on certain days. Since March 2024, we have not seen such a rapid increase in funding rates. However, it is noteworthy that projects like Ethena and some experienced traders have accumulated significant long positions in spot cryptocurrencies and short positions in perpetual contracts. Ethena alone has a total locked value of (TVL) that reached $14 billion in October 2025, but has since plummeted to $8.3 billion. These enormous basis trades may artificially suppress funding rates, rendering them ineffective.

It is important to note that the dramatic drop in funding rates we just witnessed is usually associated with an oversold condition. This is especially true when we see such a sharp decline in perpetual futures open interest simultaneously. Furthermore, the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) ratio has reached a tactically oversold level, comparable to the levels during the tariff crisis in spring 2025 and the sharp decline of the yen in August 2024. We believe that with this data in hand, investors can adopt a more aggressive tactical bullish strategy after experiencing a month of intense selling.