Deconstructing the Key to DAT's Success and Failure: Building a Depth Analysis Beyond mNAV

The DAT industry presents an 80/20 differentiation pattern. Based on real assets and differentiated treasury strategies, DAT still represents significant financial innovation and requires a more rigorous evaluation framework. This article is derived from a piece written by kokii.eth and is organized, translated, and authored by Foresight News. (Background: Even MicroStrategy is running out of money to buy BTC; can DAT withstand this wave of turmoil in Bitcoin?) (Supplementary background: Metaplanet's stock price plummeted 80% 'Bitcoin unrealized losses 16%', CEO responds: not giving up BTC reserves for DAT, continuing to increase the position long-term) DAT is neither an angel nor a devil; it is neither a savior nor a culprit. Summary of the 80/20 differentiation pattern: The DAT industry shows a power-law distribution, with leading projects in various categories occupying the vast majority of market share, while long-tail projects struggle to survive. Despite the existence of bubbles, DAT based on real assets and differentiated treasury strategies still represents significant financial innovation. Value and sentiment divergence: mNAV often obscures long-term value drivers. Our growth-driven decomposition model separates fundamental compound interest growth from market sentiment. Data shows that companies like BMNR and HSDT continue to see per-share value growth, while the decline in most DAT stock prices mainly stems from sentiment contraction, not fundamental deterioration. Fragile flywheel effect: DAT relies on reflexive capital cycles—issuing stocks to grow the treasury when at a premium, and defending per-share value when at a discount. This is extremely challenging in a declining market. Companies like Bitmine manage prudently, while some aggressive issuances by enterprises lead to dilution, harming long-term sustainability. Dual evaluation framework: A complete assessment should focus on 1. fundamental value growth independent of sentiment; 2. issuance and treasury management—whether management responds responsibly to market conditions. The two together determine whether DAT is creating value or eroding value. Data infrastructure gap: The industry urgently needs structured comparable data, including establishing disclosure standards, enhancing transparency, and optimizing operational practices. Stronger data transparency will drive industry maturity and protect investors' right to know. 2025 marks the arrival of DAT Summer, as DATs such as Bitmine (BMNR), Sharplink (SBET), and Solana Company (HSDT) enter the mainstream, rapidly expanding the field. Currently, the total market capitalization of the 30 BTC, ETH, and SOL DATs we track has reached 117 billion USD. However, after market shocks, the initial hype has begun to cool down. Despite ongoing market noise, most investors still assess DAT through the narrow lens of mNAV (Market Cap / Net Asset Value Ratio), failing to understand the intrinsic mechanisms of its core value, treasury strategies, or issuance discipline. To this end, we have compiled this report based on the DAT data dashboard constructed by our partner Pantera, aiming to promote discussion, clarify misunderstandings, and establish a more rigorous DAT evaluation framework. What are Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs)? Digital Asset Treasuries (Digital Asset Treasuries, DATs) are one of the most eye-catching financial experiments in today’s public market. They are publicly listed companies whose balance sheets are primarily composed of digital assets, allowing investors to gain indirect exposure to risks associated with BTC, ETH, SOL, etc., through the stock market. This means that investors can trade in a regulated environment through traditional brokerage accounts, bypassing the complexities of on-chain platforms. Unlike ETFs or trusts, DATs are operational companies, not passive investment vehicles. They can directly hold, trade, or even stake digital assets, issue new shares or raise funds, forming actively managed treasury tools whose value is linked to both the underlying digital assets and the company’s capital management strategy. A typical DAT begins with a small public company or newly listed vehicle (SAPC) that holds digital assets, with its net asset value (NAV – Net Asset Value) reflecting the total fair value held, while the market cap (Market Cap – MCAP) reflects the market pricing of the same asset exposure—often trading at a premium or discount due to market sentiment, liquidity, and management confidence. Some DATs, such as the Strategy of BTC, have a business model core that focuses on utilizing equity financing to continuously increase target assets. Other DATs explore staking returns, derivation exposures, or diversified portfolios, layering additional returns on top of price exposure. For investors, DAT serves as a bridge between traditional finance and on-chain assets: For retail and institutional investors, DATs provide regulatory clarity, broker accessibility, and compliance compatibility, allowing them to gain exposure to digital assets through familiar channels. For the crypto ecosystem, DATs create new capital inflow channels, increasing the circulation scarcity of underlying assets, supporting staking infrastructure, and deepening liquidity in the secondary market. Many companies and institutions participate in DAT issuance through PIPE (Private Investment in Public Equity, with investment logic based on the 'positive flywheel' shown in the following diagram: However, there are also many doubts about DAT in the market: This positive flywheel can easily be viewed as an engine of eternal bull markets, but what happens when both mNAV and the underlying digital asset prices decline? PIPE investors often set prices before DAT announcements ) that are lower than those obtained by retail investors(, often being questioned as insider trading or playing people for suckers. Trading above NAV is seen as problematic, as retail investors are forced to pay high premiums; trading below NAV is also viewed as problematic because it requires liquidating assets to repurchase shares. This article will analyze these doubts through data, clarify misunderstandings, explain the true meanings of various indicators, and share DAT evaluation methodologies. 1. Core Indicator Analysis: mNAV and Limitations Since March 2025, the total market capitalization of the 30 DATs we track has risen from 88 billion USD (primarily due to Strategy/MSTR) to approximately 117 billion USD, covering the three major digital assets BTC, ETH, and SOL. However, market discussions still overly focus on the single indicator of mNAV, neglecting its true meaning and other important indicators. Trend of DAT company market cap growth (based on 30 tracked entities) DAT is essentially publicly traded stock, and evaluation must pay attention to two major factors: Company value )NAV/ Net Asset Value(: Reflects the true value of the company. For DAT, this refers to the total liquid assets held on the balance sheet—including digital assets and cash equivalents not deployed. The core value drivers of the company are not traditional operational profits, but rather the holding and growth of digital assets. Market value )MCAP/ Market Cap(: The market's assessment of the company's value, calculated by multiplying the stock price by the total number of outstanding shares. Net Asset Value / Net Asset Value )NAV( ​ NAV reflects the fundamental value of the assets held, but the specific composition varies by company. Some companies hold cash reserves, short-term government bonds, or other equities, while others hold convertible bonds or warrants, making NAV difficult to standardize. Existing data dashboards often adopt simplified formulas, with some extending to include debt and convertible instruments. NAV multiples /…