BlockBeats news, on November 21, the U.S. Department of Labor announced that 119,000 non-farm jobs were added in September, far exceeding market expectations of 52,000, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%, reaching a four-year high. This employment report, released after a government shutdown, has become the last key data before the December FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee). The data itself is lagging and contradictory, further deepening policy divergence and making it difficult for the market to outline a clear interest rate path. The latest federal funds futures show that the probability of a rate cut in December has fallen back to below 40%, reflecting the market's rapidly cooling expectations for easing. On a macro level, non-farm employment stronger than expected should have been more hawkish, but the sharp rise in the unemployment rate clearly indicates weaknesses in the internal structure of the labor market, forming a "play people for suckers" signal, leading to greater divergence among policymakers in interpreting economic strength and weakness. The lagging nature of this data also makes it harder for the market.
