NVIDIA's profits are a pleasant surprise, injecting confidence into the market, while the Fed's meeting minutes show increasing divergence, casting doubt on a rate cut in December.

On November 20, NVIDIA (NVDA.O) announced its Q3 revenue for FY2026 of $57 billion this morning, compared to $35.082 billion for the same period last year, with market expectations of $54.923 billion. It also projected Q4 revenue for FY2026 at $65 billion, with market expectations at $61.6 billion. The growth rate of chip sales, which are at the core of the artificial intelligence boom, exceeded Wall Street's expectations, while also providing a strong revenue forecast for the quarter, leading investors to believe that the AI investment frenzy will continue. NVIDIA CEO Jen-Hsun Huang stated frankly, “I do not see an AI bubble.” Following NVIDIA's earnings report, the market experienced a rebound, with Bitcoin rising to $91,500, Ethereum climbing to $3,000, and NVIDIA's U.S. stock rising over 5% in after-hours trading, while Nasdaq futures opened up 1% on Thursday. Additionally, the Fed released the minutes of its October meeting this morning, revealing disagreements among policymakers regarding a potential interest rate cut in December, with several attendees opposing a rate cut, indicating deepening divisions within the Fed. Expectations for a rate cut in December have significantly cooled, with no key data available for officials to reference before the meeting, and the market estimates the probability of a rate cut in December has dropped to 31.6%. The minutes indicated: “Many participants support lowering the target range for the federal funds rate,” but also noted that some members who support a rate cut find maintaining the current rate acceptable as well. Several officials directly opposed the rate cut, expressing concern about the stagnation of the committee's progress towards achieving the 2% inflation target, and pointed out that if inflation does not return to 2% in a timely manner, long-term inflation expectations may rise. Most participants noted that further lowering the policy interest rate could exacerbate the risk of persistently high inflation or be misinterpreted by the market as a lack of commitment by decision-makers to achieve the 2% inflation target. These minutes reflect officials' efforts to reach a consensus in the context of missing data: weighing the dual risks of rising inflation and a weak labor market, while warning that a “sharp re-evaluation” of AI investments could lead to an “orderly decline in the stock market.”