Institutions foresee the US September non-farm payroll report: the weak employment market trend may continue, but it is too early to talk about a collapse.

On November 20, the first non-farm report after the halt will be released tonight, and the views of various institutions are as follows: Rockefeller: Expects a 50,000 increase in September non-farm employment, indicating a stable job market, while previously released labor data shows a clear sign of weakness; Indeed Hiring Lab: Compared to previous reports, it does not expect significant changes in the September non-farm employment report, the current weakness in the labor market will continue; Pantheon Macroeconomics: Any data that currently seems unsatisfactory may continue to ferment due to a six-week data vacuum, and the negative impact of non-farm data may be amplified; Reuters survey: Expects a 50,000 increase in September non-farm employment, economists believe August data was suppressed by seasonal anomalies and may be revised upwards based on historical trends; Loyola Marymount University: The labor market is clearly slowing down, and the general expectation is that this trend will continue, the labor market will hover at the bottom for a period of time but will not fall into recession; Nationwide: Expects a 40,000 to 50,000 increase in September non-farm employment, which will further confirm that the summer weakness in the job market has extended into the fall, with companies maintaining a stance of no hiring and no layoffs; Farm Credit: Expects a 55,000 increase in September non-farm employment, with an unemployment rate of 4.3%; The labor market seems to be cooling down but has not collapsed, still maintaining a situation of “low hiring, low layoffs”; Standard Chartered Bank: Expects non-farm employment data from September to November to be “very weak,” seasonal hiring may be very weak, and layoffs will be abnormally high, which should be enough to persuade the Fed moderates to lean towards the interest rate cut camp; Goldman Sachs: Expects a 80,000 increase in September non-farm employment, with an unemployment rate of 4.3%; Risks are hidden in the unpublished October data, with October non-farm employment expected to record -50,000; Credit Suisse: Expects an increase of about 40,000 in September non-farm employment, market reaction may be smaller than usual because more information about the job market can be obtained from data published by private institutions; Consulting firm RSM: September data along with revisions for July and August will show employment prospects slightly better than generally expected, but not worth boasting about, as the labor market is still struggling to support itself, and so is the overall U.S. economy. (Note: The market consensus expects an increase of 50,000 in U.S. September non-farm employment, with an unemployment rate of 4.3%.) ( Jin10 )