4E: The U.S. has resumed the release of employment data, but the "shutdown window period" still leaves policy visibility unclear.

According to 4E, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will restart the release of the delayed September non-farm payroll report this Thursday due to the government shutdown, which will end a two-month official data blackout. However, this data is considered “stale information” due to the latency, and its market impact may be relatively limited. The Dow Jones consensus expects about 50,000 new jobs in September, up from the original 22,000 in August, but still reflects a weak labor market; the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%, with a month-on-month wage growth of 0.3% and a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, basically in line with the previous values. RSM Chief Economist Bruce Buelas believes that the revisions for September and the previous two months may be slightly better than expected, but overall it remains weak. The impact of the shutdown on the data system is more profound. The BLS has confirmed that it will combine the employment reports for October and November to be released on December 16, and the unemployment rate for October will not be released separately; the job openings (JOLTS) data for September and October will also be released together. Previously, only the CPI was released as scheduled during the shutdown because it is used for adjustments to social security benefits. Brusuelas stated that the economy is entering a “period of widespread uncertainty,” and it may take until February next year to truly understand the labor market conditions. Despite the lack of official data, there are internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding “insufficient information.” Governor Waller emphasized that policy-making is not “blind flying,” and in a speech supporting a rate cut in December, he stated that current alternative indicators are sufficient to judge the economic direction. Goldman Sachs expects that new employment in September will reach 80,000, but may decrease by 50,000 in October due to the expiration of the related latency resignation plan cut by the Department of Efficiency. They also believe that the unemployment rate could rise due to temporary layoffs. The report on Thursday will also include revised data for July and August, with both Goldman Sachs and RSM expecting the revisions to be upward. 4E Comments: The restart of the non-farm payroll release can partially address the data gap, but the latency limits its guiding value for policy and markets. In the short term, the market will still seek direction amidst “incomplete information + divergent expectations,” with macro visibility remaining low.