Announcement: The US will release September retail sales data tonight at 9:30, which may strengthen expectations for a rate cut in December.

On November 25, at 9:30 PM Beijing time on Tuesday, the U.S. Census Bureau will release the U.S. retail sales data, known as “terrifying data,” along with the September PPI data. This data release has been delayed by more than a month due to the government shutdown, and it is expected to show a slight slowdown in consumer spending in September. This may indicate that American households have reached their spending limits after months of inflationary pressures. Additionally, the risk of cooling consumer spending remains due to many employers scaling back hiring. According to the median forecast from a Bloomberg survey, economists expect September retail sales to rise by 0.4%, down from a 0.6% increase the previous month. Bloomberg economists stated that the labor market conditions have improved slightly after hitting a low in the summer. However, the partial federal government shutdown in October has brought new shocks to hiring and consumer spending. “Overall, we believe that the Fed will be able to cut interest rates in December, and it is likely that it should do so to sustain the fragile recovery that began in the summer.”