Trump is eyeing Greenland, and prediction market Polymarket has already bet on the outcome in advance.

U.S. President Donald Trump revisits the idea of acquiring Greenland, and this time, the fastest response is not from the diplomatic system but from the cryptocurrency market. The on-chain prediction platform Polymarket has taken the lead in pricing this geopolitical event, turning political uncertainty into tradable probabilities.

Data shows that the prediction contract on “Will Donald Trump acquire Greenland before 2027” is currently priced at about 15%, with a total trading volume approaching $3 million. Although the probability is not high, the active trading indicates that the market is not concerned with whether the plan is realistic but has already begun trading around different scenarios.

This shift is synchronized with real-world diplomatic developments. According to public reports, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will hold talks with Danish leaders regarding Greenland, explicitly highlighting U.S. national security concerns in the region, especially involving Russian and Chinese activities in the Arctic. While Washington emphasizes diplomacy as the preferred approach, the escalation in language alone has been enough to trigger on-chain capital reactions.

Polymarket’s order book structure shows that traders do not see this event as “black or white.” Besides the overall acquisition, the market has broken down multiple pathways, including partial territorial acquisition before 2026, symbolic visits, and even military conflicts. The pricing for U.S. military intervention is only around 8%–9%, while the probability of Trump visiting Greenland in the short term is the highest, approximately 22%–23%. The overall order book shows a dominance of sell orders, reflecting a cautious rather than speculative market sentiment.

The crypto market’s interest in Greenland is not just political. The region’s renewable energy potential, cold climate, and potential rare earth resources make it a repeatedly discussed area for Bitcoin mining, AI hardware, and RWA asset deployment. Although current infrastructure remains a constraint, its strategic value has entered the crypto narrative.

From a broader perspective, traders view such events as part of the game between hard assets, fiscal expansion, and fiat currency systems. Historical experience shows that geopolitical tensions often boost Bitcoin’s narrative as a safe haven. Polymarket is not predicting outcomes but demonstrating how capital pre-absorbs uncertainty. On-chain markets are becoming real-time pricing systems for geopolitical risks.