2026/01/25 Geek

16-20
Main Path
“Break below the lower boundary of the range → Weak rebound failure → Continue downward”
Currently, the 15m and 1H are weakening simultaneously. The price has already broken below the lower boundary of the 2940–2950 consolidation zone, with very weak rebound strength, consistently suppressed by the BOLL middle band and moving averages.
This is a continuation phase after structural breakdown, not a shakeout.
Secondary Path
“Oversold rebound → Encounter resistance again → Continue to find support downward”
In the short term, if a technical rebound occurs, the maximum space is between 2945–2960 (15m middle band + 1H MA). If volume does not increase upon reaching this zone, it will be pushed back, testing 2920 or even 2900 again.
Support Levels
First support: 2920–2930 (the first support zone after current breakdown)
Second support: 2900 (integer level + previous low cluster)
Main support: 2860–2880 (1H lower band + previous wave rebound start)
Resistance Levels
First resistance: 2945–2960 (resistance zone after breakdown)
Second resistance: 3000 (trend reversal watershed)
Strong resistance: 3050–3080 (mid-term trend reversal zone)
Alternative Path
Only when 1H volume recovers above 2960 and stays steadily above 3000,
while MACD shifts from bearish to bullish and RSI stabilizes above 50,
will the structure switch from “breakdown continuation” to “range repair,” with a target of 3050–3080.
Otherwise, all rebounds will be treated as corrections within a downtrend.
Trading Suggestions
Long Positions (Defensive)
Entry Zone: 2900–2920
Stop Loss: below 2860
Target: 2950 → 2980
Logic: Only perform oversold rebounds at support zones below; do not chase any rebounds.
Short Positions (Main Line)
Entry Zone: 2945–2960
Stop Loss: 3000
Target: 2920 → 2880
Logic: The trend has broken; rebounds are just opportunities for shorts.
Pace Summary
The current pace is:
“Break downward → Weak rebound → Continue weakening”
Upper space is thoroughly suppressed, and the lower side is gradually moving down to find new support.
Conclusion
ETH has shifted from a consolidation zone into a breakdown structure.
Until 2960 is reclaimed, the market should be treated as a bearish trend;
Once 2920 is lost, the next target will be 2900 or even 2880.