I just came across an interesting report from JPMorgan that makes a pretty bold prediction for the gold price in 2028. The main point: gold could rise to $6,000 per ounce by then. That sounds ambitious, but the logic behind it is actually understandable.

What surprised me less was the target itself, but rather the reasoning. JPMorgan argues that gold is undergoing a structural shift in its role. In other words: investors are shifting their hedging strategies away from long-term bonds toward gold. Looking at the numbers, it makes sense. Currently, global private investors hold only about 2.6% of their assets in gold, while nearly 48% are invested in stocks. If this gold allocation increases to 4.6%, the gold price would need to rise by approximately 110% to meet this demand.

What drives this change? That’s actually the exciting part. Last year, we observed that investors were increasing their holdings in both stocks and gold simultaneously. This is a clear break from 2023 and 2024, when massive amounts of money flowed into bonds. The reason is obvious: bonds have not proven to be effective hedging instruments against stock risks. Especially after the double hit of declining stocks and bonds at the same time, investors lost confidence in this strategy. Gold appears as a real alternative.

The macroeconomic context also plays a role. Geopolitical uncertainties, inflation concerns, and worries about currency devaluation due to high government deficits—all support the gold price forecast. JPMorgan has drawn a historical comparison and found that today’s situation is different from the gold rush of the 1970s and 1980s. Back then, it was about fears of currency devaluation. Today, gold is discussed as a structural hedging instrument against stock risks. That is indeed a new phenomenon.

However, it must be critically noted: this $6,000 forecast for 2028 is based on the assumption that there will be massive behavioral changes in global asset allocation. This is not a guaranteed price expectation. The actual development depends on many factors—Federal Reserve monetary policy, macroeconomic conditions, dollar trends. Despite a recent correction in the gold price, there was no panicked sell-off, indicating that investors still have confidence in this hedging strategy.

What’s fascinating is that this report shows how fundamentally asset allocation is shifting. Whether this gold price forecast will come true remains to be seen. For investors, it’s worth keeping an eye on the relevant drivers. By the way: while gold is under pressure, I see other assets that could become interesting. BNB is currently trading around $600, down 2.91%—there could also be opportunities here if you consider medium-term trends.