Eagle shadow looming! Bitcoin drops below 63,270, causing a stagnant consolidation. The fear index remains at 20, with 140 million in liquidation in a single day.

Bitcoin stagnated in the early hours of Monday (6/22), hovering around $64k. After the impact of Fed Chair Powell's hawkish speech last week, Bitcoin has been declining from its peak of $67,203 on June 16, and continues to consolidate around the $64k level over the weekend, showing no signs of rebound. As of this report, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $63,970, down 0.47% in the past 24 hours, with a low of $63,270 during the session. Ethereum also weakened, currently at $1,727, down 0.56% over the past 24 hours, with market buying pressure nearly frozen under the hawkish shadow.

Over $144 million in liquidations in the past 24 hours, with longs being the main casualties

Consolidation does not mean no one is hurt. CoinGlass data shows that over the past 24 hours, total liquidations across the network reached $144.8 million, with longs suffering the most. In just the last 12 hours, $103 million worth of positions were liquidated, with longs accounting for $77.47 million and shorts only $25.66 million, roughly a 3:1 ratio.

In the past four hours alone, $73.95 million was liquidated, with longs making up $58.95 million. This reflects ongoing attempts to buy the dip during consolidation, only to be repeatedly shaken out. The largest single liquidation was $4.88 million.

The hawkish shift from Powell is now weighing heavily, with rate hike expectations replacing rate cuts

The core pressure behind this downturn stems from the June 16-17 FOMC meeting. New Fed Chair Powell presided over his first decision, maintaining interest rates in the 3.50%-3.75% range, but significantly revised upward the projections for inflation and interest rate paths on the dot plot. Nine officials expect at least one rate hike by the end of the year, prompting the market to reprice for "rate hikes rather than cuts," putting pressure on risk assets.

Inflation data remains unfriendly. The US CPI for May rose 4.2% year-over-year, hitting a three-year high, mainly driven by rising energy prices due to Iran tensions. Core CPI reached 2.9%, still far from the Fed’s 2% target.

Funding continues to drain. US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced significant net outflows in June, reaching $3.4 billion in a single week—the largest since their launch in January 2024—and a total outflow of $4.21 billion over three weeks. Fortunately, recent inflows into BlackRock’s IBIT ETF, about $86 million, suggest some stabilization. The US stock market was closed on June 19 for Juneteenth, lacking external guidance.

Solana (SOL) bucked the trend and turned green, while XRP led the decline among mainstream coins

Most major cryptocurrencies remained consolidating. Solana (SOL) was among the few that reversed course, currently at $73.47, up 0.44% in 24 hours, the only one in positive territory; XRP was the weakest, at $1.14, down 0.88%. Both hit recent highs on June 16 and have since retreated, now trading in lower ranges.

The fear index remains at 20 for consecutive days, with the macro outlook still uncertain

Market sentiment remains frozen. The Fear & Greed Index from Alternative.me is at 20, in the "extreme fear" zone, down 3 points from yesterday’s 23, indicating persistent panic. Historically, extreme fear often signals oversold conditions, and some traders see it as a buying opportunity. However, with rate hike expectations and ETF outflows still unresolved, Bitcoin is likely to remain range-bound around $64k in the near term.

The key focus moving forward remains macroeconomic factors. The recent decline was triggered by interest rates and inflation concerns. The turning point depends on the Fed: whether oil prices fall, yields loosen, or the Fed shifts dovish, will determine when funds flow back in. Until clear signals emerge, prudent leverage management and risk awareness are the most practical strategies.