The last Federal Reserve meeting of 2025 has concluded. Overall, it did not have a significant impact on the market. According to the dot plot, the stance is somewhat more accommodative compared to September, but it still lags behind market expectations by a considerable margin. However, it's okay; the biggest uncertainty for 2026 is that Powell has been replaced by Hsu. The June dot plot after the transition will be more important.
Powell's speech, apart from being somewhat dismissive of a rate cut in January, did not show any hawkish signals. He was even quite optimistic about inflation, bel

I remember a joke from Wall Street: if Powell's speech starts with G (Good afternoon), then go long; if it starts with H (Hello everyone), then go short.

The Fed has now entered garbage time, or a transition period of the game.
With Hassett surfacing the surface, Powell is now in a state of caretaking, in this context, he does not dare to be too aggressive, such as cutting interest rates by 50bp, and will not stop cutting interest rates directly, and a 25bp cut is the best
The current situation is very interesting, the nominees from both parties in the council are evenly matched.
It is precisely because he is at such an awkward political juncture that Powell can only hold the shield of data, but it leads to a big problem, the shelf life of this

20251209 US Stock Market Pre-Market Observations
1. All three major indexes closed lower last night, but the declines were manageable. This is normal anxiety ahead of an FOMC meeting. The market appears hesitant near historical highs, anxious about macro risks materializing this week.
2. Nasdaq trading volume surged to 8.3 billion shares, above average, yet the index only dipped slightly. This kind of high-volume stagnation usually means shares are being intensively exchanged at highs. More notably, the proportion of zero-day-to-expiry options exceeded 60% again, indicating massive intraday sp

From the daily chart, yesterday's fall was influenced to some extent by the Asian market, increased domestic regulatory pressure, and Japan's interest rate cut. On the market data, it rebounded to the short-term pressure but failed to surge rapidly, and the market started to decline and pull back, quickly breaking through the key support level. Currently, the daily MACD shows a decrease in long positions volume, and the KDJ has formed a death cross pointing downwards. There is a risk of another breakout in the short-term structure. Be cautious in chasing the price tonight.
Ether: 2832