Follow 潜龙_币圈悟道's Crypto Perspectives: Latest Posts & Discussions

潜龙_币圈悟道

Market Analyst

Peak Tier 4

Age 4.9 Year

Remember: red fat, green thin; red tall, green short; yang is strong, yin is weak. Technical indicators are secondary; the main thing is to watch the sentiment. The truly effective approach goes against human nature.

潜龙_币圈悟道

12-14 01:01

December 14, 2025
The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike decisions have a complex impact on the stock market. Below are the main situations regarding Yen rate hikes in recent years and their effects on the stock market:
1. March 2024: The Bank of Japan ended its negative interest rate policy, but this did not trigger significant stock market volatility, as the market had already anticipated the policy adjustment.
2. July 31, 2024: The Bank of Japan raised the policy interest rate from 0~0.1% to approximately 0.25%. The Nikkei 225 index opened lower that day but rebounded and closed slightly hi

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潜龙_币圈悟道

12-07 04:34

2025.12.7
After more than half a month of extreme panic, there’s no need to pay attention to this indicator anymore. Remember, the Ahr999 indicator has reached the bottoming zone, so you can either continue to observe or add another 20% to your position.
Today, I noticed a highly repetitive pattern on the candlestick chart. On the daily chart, when the price hits a new low, the candlestick lightly touches the lower edge of the moving average and forms a lower shadow. Then, if there’s a surge in trading volume with a large bullish candlestick, a rebound often follows. When the price retests and

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潜龙_币圈悟道

12-02 06:08

2025.12.2
The fear index today is 24. After the fear index fell below 20 for two weeks, there has only been one day in the past week that surpassed 25, with the rest of the time remaining between 20 and 25. Calculating it, there have been over 20 days where the index has been in a state of extreme fear.
The meeting on combating speculation in cryptocurrencies held by YH on November 28 only saw a decline until yesterday. Recently, there has been intense discussion about Japan's interest rate hikes, and there is still no outcome on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. The changes in

ETH-3.09%

BTC-1.95%

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潜龙_币圈悟道

11-27 03:15

2025.11.27
Today, the fear index broke 20, after remaining below 20 for fourteen days, it has now reached an index of 22, but it is still in a state of extreme fear.
The change in the number of ETH held by the top 100 addresses shows that today, inflows exceeded outflows by 200,000 Ether. An interesting point is the change in the trend of holdings, as the number of holding addresses reached 430 million on October 31, 2025, reaching 100%. A week later, the originally upward trend was broken, and before reaching the resistance level, it fell all the way down. On November 25, 2025, a similar situ

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潜龙_币圈悟道

11-24 01:54

2025.11.24
Today's Fear Index has returned to 19, marking the 12th day of extreme fear with the index below 20.
Bitcoin has reached the 0.782 line of its wide-range oscillation retracement. The inflow of holding addresses for various coins is still greater than the outflow. Taking Ethereum as an example, in the past 7 days, the increase in holdings has exceeded the decrease by over 300,000. The "blood-soaked" chips have allowed large institutions to scoop them up happily.

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潜龙_币圈悟道

11-21 14:22

2025.11.21
#Gate广场新手村第七期
Today, the Fear Index has reached 14, marking the ninth consecutive day of fear. Bitcoin’s single-day drop is 10%, with a 24% decline this month. However, sharp drops like this are a sign of shakeouts. The news about non-farm payroll data, rate cut meetings, and the constant negative media coverage are all helping with this shakeout.
Recently, many analysts’ VIP levels have dropped by one rank. Not sure if it’s because they cashed out or because their accounts shrank after Bitcoin’s plunge. Below is the asset, trading volume, or GT holding required for each VIP level,

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GT-1.73%

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潜龙_币圈悟道

11-20 07:18

2025.11.20
#Gate广场新手村第七期
The extreme panic that has continued since the 13th of this month lasted for a week, with a high of 16 and a low of 10. I don't know if this will be the bottom for the coin price, but it is definitely an opportunity to accumulate.
Previously, the Bitcoin K-line trend forecasted a fluctuation range of about 90,000 to 100,000, but reality deviated, breaking below 90,000 and reaching the 88,000 position. The Fibonacci data analysis also broke below the 0.618 position, and the e-point position mentioned in the 123 trading rule also fell below. However, one thing that

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潜龙_币圈悟道

11-17 08:59

2025.11.17
The experiences paved with the blood of predecessors are left here as a reference, hoping not to be blinded in future trades.
Gann Theory 24 Trading Rules. Read them once before each trade and after a loss. Guaranteed to be useful. Contract strategy...
1. The amount of funds used. Divide your funds into x parts, and do not let each loss exceed one part of the funds.
2. Set a stop-loss order. For example, set a stop-loss for ETH at $20, and for altcoins, set a stop-loss of 5-10 points. Establishing a stop-loss helps protect trade safety and reduce risk!
3. Never overtrade. This will

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潜龙_币圈悟道

11-16 02:11

2025.11.16
Today's panic index is the same as yesterday, still at 10, remaining at the position of 10 for two consecutive days. Currently, the K-line trend has reached a very narrow range, waiting for a change in the market...
Technical analysis indicators: Fibonacci sequence, long-short ratio, contract liquidation map, funding rate, RSI heat map, MA 52-week line, MA 200-day moving average, MACD zero line, daily trading volume, daily transaction amount, fear index, change in the proportion of holding addresses, AHR999, support level, resistance level, 123 trading rule.
The news changes con

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潜龙_币圈悟道

11-14 10:34

2025.11.14
Today's panic index is 16, the funding rate is positive, the proportion of long positions in contracts is 63%, the daily K-line has broken through a strong support level, and the weekly line is also in a broken state. The market has not shown a rapid rebound, coupled with a three consecutive bearish candlestick pattern, filling the market with fear, a very familiar scene.
All indicators suggest that Bitcoin is likely to continue its downward trend, and the next few days will be the most grueling. The K-line trend has entered a very narrow downward fluctuation zone, and it's

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CDCDDCDC

Liquidity issues have always troubled me.

潜龙_币圈悟道

11-13 03:23

2025.11.13
Today's panic index is estimated to be the lowest number currently, with a panic index of only 15, which can be said to cause extreme panic.
A few days ago, I saw that the largest holder of Ethereum purchased 200,000 ETH, which indeed triggered a rebound. It was short-lived but significant, directly rising to around 3600, only to pull back when it touched the moving average. Today, I noticed that the long positions in contracts were liquidated for 9.6 billion, while the short positions were liquidated for only 3 billion. I didn't quite understand the data on the contract liq

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BTC-1.95%

DOGE-3.14%

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GateUser-6857559e

thanks for the useful information

潜龙_币圈悟道

11-09 09:02

2025.11.9
The panic index today is the same as yesterday, both at 20, but what I find unbelievable is that the top address holding ETH has increased its holdings by 300,000 ETH. Additionally, it has tested strong support levels for three consecutive days without breaking down. Looking at the price of ETH on November 9, 2024, it is around 3000. There has been a significant fluctuation over the course of a year, with a low of 1400 and a high of 4900, and now it is just at a central price level. If this trend is graphed using Fibonacci, it corresponds to a pullback from the high price to the 0.5

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潜龙_币圈悟道

11-08 07:31

2025.11.8
Today BTC 103000, ETH 3450
After two consecutive days of significant declines, with ETH falling 13% in a single day, various cryptocurrencies have rebounded by 10% today, and I believe it is a rebound.
Looking at the K-line trend today, after the start of the bull market in 2024,
The highest point around 70,000 appeared in March 2024.
The lowest point of around 60,000 will appear in August 2024.
The highest point of around 110,000 will appear in December 2024.
In April 2025, the lowest point will be around 75,000.
The highest point will appear around 120,000 in August 2025.
Based o

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潜龙_币圈悟道

11-06 02:45

2025.11.6
Sometimes I really don't want to draw lines to find technical support and resistance levels, but occasionally when I look at the candlestick chart, it's just so coincidental, neither more nor less, that the highs and lows connect to form a line.
The panic sentiment in the past two days has been below 30, and the decline has been significant. I have also looked at many analysts' judgments on the trend, and I believe there will be another wave of upward movement. Regardless of what the news says about large holders fleeing and big funds needing to withdraw money for hedging

BTC-1.95%

ETH-3.09%

DOGE-3.14%

ADA-1.99%

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潜龙_币圈悟道

11-04 09:55

Account unrealized losses of 20%, but I don't want to stop loss. I don't want to get whipsawed out of positions at the end of the bull run. There's still a quarter of the principal waiting for the big bullish candle I want to appear. Today's panic index is 21, and several coins' K-lines have already fallen below the 200-day moving average. I know that the technical indicators are currently ineffective, and we mainly need to look at the news.
I checked Dogecoin, Ethereum, Cardano, and Bitcoin. In the past week, the inflow of funds to the top 100 coin holding addresses was gr

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潜龙_币圈悟道

10-29 02:26

2025.10.29
The big event that happened in the past two days is the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut meeting. Normally, a rate cut would be favorable and drive the cryptocurrency market up. I noticed that the fear index is at 51; in just a week, the fear index has risen from 25 to 51, and the market seems to be warming up.
Today while checking the market, I found an interesting situation. The top 100 holders of BTC, ETH, ADA, and DOGE have all made adjustments in the past week, as shown in the figure below. Among them, the buying volume of DOGE is quite large, with tens of millions, 300

BTC-1.95%

ETH-3.09%

ADA-1.99%

DOGE-3.14%

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0xBit

thanks for sharing

潜龙_币圈悟道

10-23 02:12

Starting today, take more notes on your insights whenever you have time, gradually develop your own trading mindset, and slowly form your market intuition. What you think today may be forgotten next week, so use this platform to post updates and record every piece of information you discover.
October 23, 2025
Today, I looked through the holding addresses of different cryptocurrencies and found that the top holder of ETH and GT accounts for about 60%; for DOGE, WLD, and WLFI, the top holder accounts for 20-30%, while the second and third holders also account for 10-20%; only BTC and ADA have a

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GT-1.73%

DOGE-3.14%

WLD-4.09%

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TomiroYoshikawa

Ha, fighting!😀

潜龙_币圈悟道

10-20 06:13

I drew a box around Bitcoin and Ethereum. I've been feeling the urge to increase the position these days, but looking at the trading volume over the past week, there hasn't been a significant bullish candle, so I'm hesitating, caught in a dilemma... $BTC $ETH

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潜龙_币圈悟道

10-14 01:32

Make a prediction that around October 22 there will be a wave of fall to test the bottom, the last buying the dip opportunity, just wait for the right moment to appear $BTC

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潜龙_币圈悟道

10-11 01:20

Finally, I can increase the position. I've waited a long time for this. The USDT saved before the festival is finally useful $ETH .

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