Defioasis

Comparing the daily Volume / OI ratio curves of the three major BSC prediction markets together provides a clearer view of the market's speculative level.
Probable recently reached a Vol/OI ratio of 2,300%, which is not only high in absolute terms but also exhibits significant daily fluctuations.
Placing Opinion, Predict Fun, and Probable on the same chart, the first two are almost overshadowed, with Probable's market turnover or speculative intensity clearly exceeding the other two.
Initially, Opinion and Predict Fun experienced brief periods of high Volume / OI ratios on certain days,

Using Polymarket as a benchmark, the real-time Vol/OI ratios for prediction markets from lowest to highest are:
- Polymarket: 29.73%
- Opinion: 29.95%
- Kalshi: 32.54%
- Myriad: 57.69%
- Predict Fun: 69.67%
- Limitless: 926.81%
- Probable: 2,305.17%

Opinion Cumulative capture fees have exceeded $16.6 million, and strong cash flow will be one of TGE's biggest confidence boosters.
Looking at the distribution of cumulative fees, the Crypto sector contributed over a quarter, reaching $4.4 million; followed by Pre-TGE, macro, sports, and business sectors, each exceeding $2 million.
After nearly four months of development, the daily fee capture sector structure has undergone significant changes, which may be one of the signs of Opinion moving towards maturity.
In the initial growth phase, the Crypto sector once contributed over 90% of daily fee

Based on the USDT balance of the agent trading address, it can be inferred that the current potential total liquidity of the BSC prediction market is approximately $35 million, which is a sharp decline from the peak of over $74 million on December 26.
Opinion still has the best liquidity, accounting for about 65% of the BSC prediction market liquidity, but it is in a continuous downward trend. The reasons may include being diverted by other competitors and the withdrawal of some funds.
Probable, although it has surpassed Opinion in daily trading volume and number of trades, from a liquidity pe

Different prediction markets have slightly different rulings on ZachXBT's announcement of insider trading companies, which may also lead to varying boundaries of controversy.
Polymarket's ruling emphasizes a direct mention and clear connection to insider trading.
① The company is directly named by ZachXBT
② It is related to insider trading
③ If multiple companies are named by ZachXBT, the one with the clearest insider trading allegations is selected.
Predict Fun's ruling focuses on the Primary Business Targeted, that is, whether the company is the main subject of ZachXBT's investigat

Based on pre-market futures, Opinion's valuation is estimated to be between $500 million and $800 million, with Polymarket, Predict Fun, and others raising their $500m forecast probability for Opinion TGE's first-day valuation back to 60%.
However, one less favorable data point is that Opinion's market share of daily trading volume in the BSC prediction market has fallen below 25% for the first time.
On February 22, the BSC prediction market's trading volume reached approximately $120 million, with the following distribution:
- Probable accounting for 59.4%, totaling $71 million
- Opi

Polymarket Builders weekly trading volume reached $125 million, surpassing $100 million for three consecutive weeks; weekly trading addresses also continue to grow rapidly, exceeding 10,000 for two consecutive weeks.
In terms of cumulative trading volume, betmoar remains the leader with over $550 million, accounting for 50.6% of the market share; other platforms with cumulative trading volume exceeding $50 million include PolyTraderPro, PolyCop, Stand, Polymtrade, and Preddy trade.
Regarding cumulative trading addresses, Polymtrade became the first builder to surpass 10,000 traders and is also

Back from vacation? The BSC prediction market's nominal trading volume has returned above $200 million after a week and a half, with both Probable and Opinion exceeding $100 million.
In terms of market share of nominal trading volume:
Probable - 42.9%
Opinion - 41.6%
Predict Fun - 15.5%
Interestingly, the market with the highest trading volume for Probable on that day was “Will the Opinion FDV be above $30 billion within one day of release?”, accounting for nearly 20% of the trading volume.

Polymarket's Crypto Up or Down 5min markets have expanded from BTC to ETH, SOL, and XRP, fully aligning with the 15min markets.
During a full trading day, the 5min markets for BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP have traded over $20 million, with BTC exceeding $18 million and ETH over $1.5 million.
The 15min markets may face further fragmentation, with daily trading volume currently slightly above $10 million.

In the past week, Polymarket contributed over $1 million in trading fees to the Polygon network.
Polygon's network trading fees for that week reached a record high of over 16 million POL (equivalent to $1.55 million), with Polymarket alone contributing 65%.
Polymarket's two major Fee Module contracts have long held the first and second positions in Gas Used on the Polygon network.

Polymarket's Crypto Up or Down 5min market trading volume continues to hit new highs, with daily trading volume exceeding $16.6 million and 17,600 unique trading addresses per day. Currently, there are 7 trading addresses with 5min market trading volumes over $1 million, but the average transaction size varies significantly, ranging from less than $10 to over $100 per transaction, seemingly running different strategies. Interestingly, all 7 addresses have positive PnL. The data panel now includes Predicts.guru for 5min market trading address analysis. Feel free to check it out:

Polymarket's Crypto Up or Down new 5-minute market has somewhat diverted traffic from the 15-minute market.
In the past day, the BTC 5-minute market saw 17,000 unique traders completing over $14 million in trading volume.
The 15-minute market's daily trading volume has declined for three consecutive days since the launch of the 5-minute market, dropping from approximately $24 million on February 11 to about $13.7 million yesterday.
Data:

Polymarket Builders' Daily Traders First Break 4,000
Builders with over 500 independent users trading daily include Polygun, PolyCop, and polymtrade.
Among them, TG Bot Polygun only started operating in early to mid-January and has become the Builder with the most daily traders and among the top five in daily trading volume. It seems that the main attractive feature is still Copy Trading.

Unknowingly, the total market capitalization of tokenized gold has reached $6 billion, locking in over 1.2 million ounces of gold, with rapid growth.
Among them, XAUT and PAXG together account for over 95% of the tokenized gold market share, and are also part of the index components for some CEX's XAU perpetual contracts.