#Gate广场五月交易分享 Altcoin movements, altcoins missed the last bull run or are likely to lead the rally first
Is the altcoin season coming? Three key indicators tell you your current position
The altcoin season index is 46, Bitcoin’s market share is 60%, ETH/BTC remains low...
After two bottoming rebounds, altcoins missed the last cycle; can they catch up this time?
Recently, many friends are asking:
“Is the altcoin season starting?”
“After two bottoming rebounds, the altcoin sector generally surged, could this be the early stage of altcoins?”
We directly use three core data points to objectively discuss the current market position.
01 Altcoin Season Index: 46.00
Not yet in “altcoin season,” just a transitional zone. Altcoin season index, simple understanding: value above 75 → most altcoins outperform Bitcoin, true altcoin season
Value below 25 → deep Bitcoin season, funds highly concentrated in BTC. Currently, this index is around 46 (different data sources may vary slightly).
This has rebounded from February’s 39 but is still far below the 75 confirmation line.
Conclusion: Altcoins overall have not outperformed Bitcoin; the market remains on the fringes of “Bitcoin season,” just transitioning from extreme downturn.
02 Bitcoin Market Share: 59.99%
Still high, capital outflows have not occurred on a large scale; touched 61% at the beginning of May, now back to 59.99%. How high is this?
— Since 2019, this is a rare high range. Historical experience: in November 2020, it also approached 60%, then a fierce rotation into altcoins occurred.
But the key point: that rotation was triggered by Bitcoin market share declining for several consecutive weeks, not by single-day volatility. It remains relatively stable; conditions for large-scale liquidity flowing into altcoins are not yet fully mature.
03 ETH/BTC: 0.02848
At the lower boundary of an eight-year pattern, but ETH/BTC has not reversed from its current around 0.02848. Technically, it’s in the lower tip of an eight-year converging triangle (pattern end near 0.029).
If it breaks upward, the market believes it could trigger a stronger altcoin rally than in 2021. But the reality is:
It’s still in a downtrend, with ETH relative to BTC continuing to underperform.
A clear rebound in ETH/BTC would be the first signal of capital rotation from BTC to altcoins — which has not yet appeared.
04 “Two bottoms + missed last altcoin cycle,” is this logic valid?
These two facts are correct:
In early 2025–2026, due to liquidation events, delayed liquidity, etc., the market missed the expected altcoin peak twice. Since 2023, many altcoins have shown accumulation patterns similar to the bull markets of 2016 and 2020 before their launches, but note:
“Selective altcoin surges” ≠ “Full altcoin season has started.” The more accurate current situation is: structural altcoin windows: funds still prioritize BTC, ETH, and a few high-liquidity tokens, with short upward cycles, quick pullbacks, and small tolerance for errors.
A full surge requires more stringent confirmation signals.
05 In the institutionalized era, the altcoin model has changed
The 2021 script can no longer be rigidly applied. The biggest difference from previous cycles is: deep institutional involvement. Institutions prioritize BTC (via ETFs, compliant accounts) and do not initially buy large amounts of small-cap altcoins. The total number of tokens exceeds 10 million, with serious capital dispersion. Additionally, in May, several major projects faced token unlocks, exerting actual selling pressure on mid- and small-cap tokens.
Incremental stablecoins also have not flowed massively into long-tail assets.
06 Next, focus on two key signals
On the positive side, the total market cap of altcoins (TOTAL3) has rebounded to $765 billion, a two-month high; altcoin trading volume share has risen from 31% to 49% (compared to BTC+ETH futures).
Some analysts expect: the altcoin season peak may occur between May and September 2026, and we are within this time window.
Must confirm signals:
BTC market share has closed below 59.63% for several consecutive weekly charts
ETH/BTC has clearly stopped falling and started rising
Altcoin season index has risen from 46 to above 75 (strong confirmation)
These three signals need to be validated one by one, not guessed, but based on weekly data.
07 Summary: It’s not “already here,” but “conditions are brewing”
Overall judgment: two bottoms + missed previous altcoin cycles
✅ The accumulated historical pattern is similar to the lows of 2017/2021 ✅ Structurally present, but current data does not support “full altcoin season has started”
A more accurate characterization is: early conditions for altcoin season are gradually forming, but core technical signals are not yet confirmed.
In the coming weeks, focus on:
🔻 Whether BTC market share can fall below 59.63% (weekly level)
🔻 Whether ETH/BTC can stop falling and rebound
These two are the leading indicators of capital truly rotating “from BTC to altcoins.”
Have your altcoins been moving recently?
Feel free to discuss in the comments—
