Huaxi Securities: The scale of reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut in 2025 may not be less than 50bp and 20bp respectively.

On December 10th, Jin10 Data reports that Huaxi Securities research report pointed out that the mention of ‘monetary policy’ in this political meeting inevitably brings to mind the magnificent combination of monetary and fiscal policies from 2008 to 2010. Specifically with regard to this round of monetary policy, it may be similar to the past, not only the tone has changed, but the framework has also shifted from cross-cycle (or cross-cycle and countercyclical) to countercyclical regulation. This probably points to the increased adjustment of the reserve ratio and policy interest rate. Looking forward to 2025, the magnitude of a single reduction in the deposit reserve ratio and interest rate under monetary policy may not be lower than 50bp and 20bp (in 2024), and it is also possible to further increase the magnitude in extreme situations. The specific degree of easing and duration may depend on the economic situation.