▎Analysis of the Bitcoin market cycle and the current situation

▎Characteristics of the bull market and the current phase

Historically, a bullish cryptocurrency market goes through five stages:

1. BTC breakthrough and leaders: Bitcoin is the first to update the historical maximum, followed by top altcoins.

2. Correction of BTC and sharp decline of altcoins: BTC pulls back by ~20%, altcoins lose up to 50%, the market is diversifying.

3. New BTC high with weak alt recovery: BTC updates ATH, but alts grow limitedly, focus on leaders.

4. Deep correction: BTC falls by 30%, altcoins by 50-60%, most coins hit new lows, panic intensifies.

5. Consolidation before the final surge: BTC tests the previous high, altcoins remain 2× below ATH.

Current phase: BTC is showing a wave-like growth ("new highs → pullbacks"), altcoins continue to decline. BTC investors are locking in profits (up to 5× per year), altcoin holders are facing high volatility.

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▎BTC Analysis for 17.05 and Trading Ideas

▎Technical Picture

• Trend: Upward, but a pullback is likely.

• Key levels:

• Support: $101,800 (EMA60), $101,000 (EMA15), $102,233 (local minimum).

• Resistance: $104,850 (Bollinger), $105,800 (previous ATH), $104,830 (short-term barrier).

▎Indicators:

• MACD: On the 4H — golden cross, but on the daily chart — divergence, signaling a correction.

• KDJ: Overbought (82), risk of a short-term pullback.

• Volumes: Decrease, market in wait mode.

▎Evening strategy 17.05:

• BTC: Sales in the range of $103,300–$103,800 → target $101,800.

• ETH: Sales at $2500–$2530 → target $2380.

• Tactics: Bearish signals prevail, bounces are possible but weak.

Recommendations:

• The main focus is long positions on pullbacks, additional short positions at resistance.

• Buying zone: $102,200–$102,700.

• Sales zone: $104,600–$105,100.

Important: Keep an eye on the volume, do not ignore stop-losses, avoid blind holding of positions.

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▎Result

The market is in a consolidation phase with BTC dominance. A short-term pullback is likely, but the overall trend remains bullish. Altcoins risk continuing their decline. Trade carefully, using support/resistance levels.

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