#十月加密市场预测 The heartbeat of the global Capital Market is once again in the hands of the Fed. The market is betting wildly: a rate cut in October is already a done deal, and another cut in December is also just around the corner. Where will this impending Liquidity tsunami push Crypto Assets?

1. The signal is clear: the trend of interest rate cuts is unstoppable.
Recently, global investors have focused on a set of data:
· The probability of a rate cut in October is as high as 94.6%!

· The probability of interest rate cuts in December has also reached 84.9%!
This is no longer a matter of "whether or not to cut," but rather "when to cut and by how much." The Fed's "U-turn" in policy signifies the official end of a two-year aggressive interest rate hike cycle, and a brand new era of easing is beginning.
For the Crypto Assets market, this is by no means a distant macro narrative, but rather the imminent sounding of the bull market horn.
2. Why is a rate cut a "major benefit" for the crypto market?
To understand this, you need to grasp a core keyword: Liquidity.
1. [Water flows low, money goes high]

The most direct impact of interest rate cuts is that it lowers the yield on traditional "safe assets" such as banks and government bonds. When money in the bank no longer makes a profit, sharp-eyed capital will flood out in search of higher-yielding "low-lying areas."

The highly volatile and potentially limitless crypto assets market is the largest undervalued area. The influx of funds and the increase in buying pressure are undoubtedly the most direct fuel for driving up prices.

2. 【The US dollar weakens, Bitcoin strengthens】

Interest rates are the pricing anchor of currency. The Fed's interest rate cuts typically lead to a depreciation of the dollar. Since its inception, Bitcoin has carried the inherent gene of "countering fiat currency depreciation."

When the marginal credit of the US dollar weakens, more and more individuals and institutions will view Bitcoin as an important value storage tool (digital gold). In this context, the overall value foundation of Crypto Assets will become more solid.

3. [Risk preference returns, "panic" turns into "greed"]

In the past two years, interest rate hikes have hung over global risk assets like a sword of Damocles, with market sentiment primarily focused on "risk aversion." The arrival of interest rate cuts is a clear policy signal: tightening has ended, and it is now time to "take risks!"

Crypto Assets, as one of the asset classes with the strongest global risk appetite, will be the first to benefit from the shift in market sentiment. You will find that institutional funds and large retail investors that once left will return.
3. History will not simply repeat itself, but it always bears the same rhyme.
Let us review history:
In 2019, the Fed initiated a "preventive rate cut," and Bitcoin surged by 95% that year.

In 2020, after the pandemic, interest rates dropped to zero + unlimited money printing, directly giving rise to an epic bull market from 10,000 to 69,000.
Historical experience tells us: once the Fed's "tap" is turned on, the parched land of crypto assets always rejuvenates first.
However, this time is really different!
Compared to any previous rate cut cycle, we are in a more favorable structural environment this time:
Spot Bitcoin ETF "Suction Effect": This is the first time in history that a "spot ETF" financial weapon has entered a rate-cutting cycle. It acts like a huge capital funnel, allowing traditional Wall Street funds to flow seamlessly into Bitcoin. The liquidity released from rate cuts will be efficiently funneled into the market, with a power far exceeding that of the past.

The halving cycle coincides with the interest rate cut cycle, forming a "Davis Double Hit": In April of this year, Bitcoin just completed its fourth halving. Historically, halving itself brings supply shocks, leading to bull markets. Now, the "supply halving" and "monetary easing" are resonating with each other, and the chemical reaction it produces is worth looking forward to for all investors.
5. Think Calmly: Risk Warning in Opportunities
Of course, the market does not have a hundred percent certainty, and we need to maintain a sense of clarity:
· Beware of "buying the expectation and selling the fact": the benefits of interest rate cuts may have already been partially absorbed by the market. When the actual interest rate cut occurs, it is necessary to guard against short-term profit-taking causing volatility.

· Pay attention to the economic fundamentals: If the rate cut is due to a sharp deterioration in the economy (hard landing), the market's panic in the short term may overwhelm the benefits of the rate cut.

The direction of the tide has changed. The Fed's interest rate cuts will open up a "ceiling" on the macro level for the crypto market. Although the road may have bumps, the momentum driven by liquidity has already taken shape.
For every market participant, what needs to be done now is not to be anxious about short-term fluctuations, but to take a broader perspective, understand the position in the cycle, and prepare to embrace this new chapter driven by the shift in monetary policy.
The opportunity has arrived, are you ready? (转)