Robusta coffee rises dramatically over concerns about the harvest in Vietnam

Coffee shows mixed prices today. Arabica coffee is down but remains above last Friday's one-month low, pressured by reports that U.S. lawmakers plan to introduce a bill to exempt coffee products from tariffs.

Robusta coffee rises sharply due to concerns about heavy rains forecasted for the rest of the month in Vietnam's Central Highlands, the country's main producing region. These rains could damage the beans that are entering the final phase of development before harvest.

Coffee prices find support due to dry conditions in Brazil. Somar Meteorologia reported today that Minas Gerais, Brazil's largest arabica coffee-producing region, received only 10.5 mm of rain during the week ending September 20, just 73% of the historical average. September is the critical flowering period for Brazilian coffee plants.

The 50% tariffs imposed on Brazilian imports have led to a significant reduction in ICE coffee inventories, a bullish factor for prices. U.S. buyers are canceling new contracts to purchase Brazilian beans due to these tariffs, which is tightening supply in the U.S., where approximately one-third of the unroasted coffee comes from Brazil.

A bountiful harvest of robusta coffee in Vietnam is bearish for prices. Vietnamese coffee production for 2025/26 is expected to increase by 6% year-on-year to 1.76 million metric tons, a four-year high. Vietnam is the world's largest producer of robusta coffee.

Prices also found support after the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimated a 71% probability of a La Niña climate system in the southern hemisphere between October and December, which could bring excessive droughts to Brazil and damage the coffee crop for 2026/27.

The news of reduced exports supports prices. The International Coffee Organization reported that global exports in July fell by 1.6% year-on-year. Reduced exports from Brazil also support prices, with a 20.4% year-on-year drop in exports of unroasted coffee in July.

Harvest pressures in Brazil are bearish for prices after the Cooxupe cooperative announced that the harvest among its members was 98.9% complete as of September 12.

The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service projected that global coffee production in 2025/26 will increase by 2.5% year-on-year to a record 178.68 million bags. However, Volcafe forecasts a global arabica coffee deficit of 8.5 million bags for 2025/26, greater than the deficit of 5.5 million bags for 2024/25 and the fifth consecutive year of deficits.