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Yesterday, the Fed announced the end of the 29-month QT, which is Favourable Information, but Powell said that a rate cut might not happen in December, which is Unfavourable Information. Now both sides are in turmoil—one with rising inflation and the other with slowing employment. The core contradiction over the past two years has been prices; the core data on the non-tariff portion has actually dropped to 2.3-2.4%. As long as tariffs are not increased, overall inflation momentum will decline on its own. Now he is more worried about a sudden downturn in the labor market, as rates have already been cut by 50 basis points, and the marginal returns of continuing aggressive cuts are clearly diminishing. The key issue is whether there will be a rate cut in December; the crux of the matter is that the funds for rate cuts are not flowing into the crypto world. I’ve found that my research on macroeconomic trends works perfectly with the US stock market. Last week during a live broadcast, I saw Nvidia was in a good position and bought some, which reached a new high yesterday. This year, the crypto world has been completely abandoned by capital. Nvidia's market capitalization has reached five trillion, while the entire crypto market capitalization is still less than four trillion. Any money from the US stock market flowing into the crypto world would create a bull run. If this continues, I will have to focus more on the US stock market.
Popular Science:
QE: Fed bond purchases - payment with newly printed cash - increase in bank investable funds - flow
Liquidity expansion
QT: Fed sells bonds - cash withdrawal system - investment funds decrease - market contraction
Tight