1. Market Overview The current market price of BTC is 109,544, with data referenced from the closing price of the most recent hourly candlestick. Recent price fluctuations have been significant, with the 14th day's candlestick showing BTC quickly dropping from a high of 116,400 to a low around 106,316, overall showing a high-level retreat and short-term oscillation trend. Within 48 hours, the price has fluctuated mainly in the range of 110,000 to 109,500, with a narrowing range, indicating an increase in short-term market wait-and-see sentiment. Regarding trading volume, there was a concentrated increase in the past, but it has decreased over the last two trading days. Currently, fluctuations are mainly characterized by reduced volume, indicating limited energy release from both bulls and bears at the existing price level, and the market activity has weakened compared to the previous period. Market-related public sentiment and analysts' opinions generally tend to be cautious and wait-and-see. Some short-selling and short-term profit strategies are frequently observed, while bullish confidence is insufficient, reflecting a decline in market participants' confidence in the future market. Coupled with negative sentiment signals emphasized by mainstream analysts regarding BTC, such as "long-term holders continuing to sell off," the market overall leans towards weakness. 2. Technical Analysis From a technical perspective, based on the 14th day's candlestick, BTC's highest point was 116,400, and the lowest was 106,316, with recent closing prices continuously approaching the low. The support range is clearly distributed between 108,275 and 109,484; if it breaks down, attention should be paid to the support of the historical low at 106,316. The resistance above is at 110,750 and 111,250, with further resistance at 114,108 to 115,166. The 48-hour hourly chart shows that BTC has oscillated down from 110,500 to 109,544, with high points shrinking and low points repeatedly hitting new lows, forming a continuous downward structure in a short cycle. There have been repeated supports around 109,757 and 109,991, but recovery has been weak, and high-level trading volume has continued to decrease, indicating weakened bullish power and dominant bearish power. Overall, the technical shape shows a typical weak oscillation adjustment, with momentum primarily decreasing. If it loses the 109,484 support in the short term, it may continue to seek support downwards; otherwise, a rebound will find it difficult to break through the pressure level above 110,750. 3. News and Policy Interpretation According to the latest market news, "whale" accounts have continuously deposited BTC into trading platforms and Binance, with a single amount as high as 351 BTC, profiting 27.97 million USD. In addition, public opinion mentions "100% win rate whales continuously increasing long positions," with long positions exceeding 400 million USD. Nevertheless, such news has not driven prices to rise significantly; instead, during the same time window, BTC fell below 110,000, with a 24-hour decline of 0.25%. The favorable sentiment mentioned in the news did not effectively stimulate a market reversal, reflecting that while large capital movements caused a brief impact, they did not change the overall downward trend. On the policy front, according to relevant data, there have been no new policy dynamics in the past 24 hours, 1 week, and 1 month, and the market has not been affected by external regulatory events. Therefore, price changes are mainly associated with capital behaviors and market sentiment. 4. Analysts' Views The consolidated views of analysts lean towards caution and even bearishness, which aligns with the market situation. According to crypto signal feedback: "Persistent selling by long-term holders (LTHs) continues to pressure Bitcoin’s market structure. The LTH Net Position Change has dropped to ‘-104K BTC per month, marking the largest distribution wave since mid-July. This steady sell pressure reflects broader market fatigue, as experienced investors continue realizing profits amid slowing demand and reduced conviction across participants. Long-term holders (LTH) continue to sell Bitcoin, putting continuous pressure on the market structure. The LTH net position change has dropped to -104,000 BTC per month, marking the largest sell-off wave since mid-July. This ongoing sell pressure reflects overall market weakness as experienced investors continue to take profits amid slowing demand and declining confidence among market participants." This view is highly consistent with the daily chart showing multiple volume drops and support failures. Another viewpoint mentions "BTC price 110100" "Once again congratulating friends who have followed BTC short positions for short-term profits, you can take profits and exit, medium to long-term profits take 70% and do cost protection to continue holding. BTC price is nearby." Combining candlestick data, the short-selling strategy has been realized correctly, and the price is indeed fluctuating around that position, showing a high level of market recognition for short-selling speculation. 5. Future Trend Prediction and Operational Suggestions The technical structure indicates that BTC has significant downward risk in the short term. If the price continues to hold below 109,484 support, there is a risk of further probing down to 106,316. The primary pressure above is at 110,750, and if it does not break through effectively, the rebound space will be very limited. It is recommended that short-term investors closely monitor the 109,484 line; if it effectively breaks down, strict stop-loss measures should be taken to prevent losses from expanding. If a volume rebound occurs in the short term, attention should be paid to the resistance response at 110,750. Medium to long-term holders can appropriately reduce positions in batches or implement a "cost protection" strategy according to analysts' suggestions, considering the current market pressure and being cautious about increasing positions. 6. Risk Warning Based on the last 14 days and 48 hours of candlestick data, BTC is currently in a converging range of volatility, with a clear descending channel and a significant recent decrease in volume, indicating low confidence in buying. There is a risk of a downward breakout; once it falls below the previous low of 109,484, it may once again test the historical low of 106,316. In the short term, there is a lack of policy and major favorable catalysts, combined with analysts' continuous bearish views, market volatility and downward risks must be taken seriously, and investments should continue to be cautious, setting appropriate stop-loss measures and managing risks effectively. In summary, BTC is currently in a weak consolidation phase, with short-term risks outweighing opportunities, and it is advisable to be cautious about blindly bottom-fishing and to follow the trend.