The Lindy Effect: Why Bitcoin and Ethereum Could Be Your Best Allies

You need to understand one thing: the older a technology is, the more likely it is to be here tomorrow. This is the Lindy effect, and it’s a concept that literally changes how you should think about cryptocurrencies.

Where Does This Idea Come From?

Economist Nassim Nicholas Taleb introduced it at a deli in New York where Broadway actors would gather. He noticed something fascinating: a show that has been running for 10 years is likely to run for another 10. Why? Because it has already passed all the industry tests.

In other words: age is evidence of robustness.

Bitcoin: The Perfect Case Study

Bitcoin has been around for 15 years. It has experienced:

• Price crashes of 90% (and recovered)
• Government bans (El Salvador adopted it as official currency in 2021, while China banned it)
• Constant hacking attacks (the network remains intact)
• Changing regulations in every country

The result? Bitcoin reached $69,210 in March 2024, surpassed the market capitalization of silver, and became the eighth-largest asset globally. It’s not luck; it’s proven resilience.

What makes Bitcoin special:

• Fixed supply: Maximum of 21 million coins by protocol
• Real decentralization: 10,000+ independent nodes validating transactions
• Continuous innovation: Lightning Network for instant payments, Taproot for efficiency

Ethereum Also Counts

Ethereum has been around since 2015 and survived its own hell: smart contract bugs, controversial forks (The DAO hack), major migrations from (Proof of Work to Proof of Stake). But continuing to operate after all that = a sign of strength.

How This Changes Your Investment Strategy

The obvious: If you’re choosing between a coin that’s been standing for 15 years versus one that just launched 3 months ago with revolutionary tokenomics, the Lindy effect suggests the older one will probably win.

The key: It’s not about choosing between Bitcoin OR Ethereum. It’s about avoiding projects that HAVE NOT gone through full market cycles (bull markets, bear markets, regulations, crashes).

The practical: The Lindy effect rewards patience. Not quick gains. Investors who held Bitcoin for 10 years earned more than anyone doing active trading.

Lindy vs. Metcalfe: Which Is Better?

There’s another concept floating around: the Metcalfe’s Law. It states that the value of a network grows with the square of its users.

Key difference:

• Lindy = focus on robustness and age (How long has it survived?)
• Metcalfe = focus on network and growth (How many users does it have?)

Bitcoin wins on both fronts, by the way. It has the longest track record AND the largest network.

The Plot Twist

The Lindy effect DOES NOT mean Bitcoin is “safe” or that it can never fail. It means that probabilistically, it has a higher chance of surviving than any random altcoin that launched 6 months ago. It’s a thinking tool, not a guarantee.

Top investors understand this: they’re not looking for speculative home runs. They seek assets that have proven to be antifragile — that strengthen under pressure.

Lindy Effect in action: Bitcoin survived 2008, Mt. Gox, China, the SEC, 47 FUD cycles. It will continue to be here.

The question is: is your portfolio built with a 10-year horizon in mind, or are you chasing the next meme coin pump?