#十二月降息预测

From a macroeconomic perspective, the slowdown in inflation and the pressure of economic growth are occurring simultaneously.
Recently, the inflation levels of major global economies have continued to decline, providing the central banks with policy space for a possible rate cut in December. Taking the United States as an example, the year-on-year growth rate of the core CPI has significantly dropped below last year's peak, and the decline in energy and food prices has eased inflationary pressures. However, both the manufacturing PMI and consumer confidence index have weakened, indicating insufficient economic growth momentum. If the Federal Reserve continues to maintain high interest rates, it will further suppress corporate financing and investment demand, potentially leading to a deterioration in the job market.
In this context, a rate cut in December is seen as a key regulatory tool for a "soft landing." Moderate monetary easing can alleviate corporate debt burdens, boost confidence in the capital markets, and prevent the economy from falling into recession. However, an early or too rapid rate cut also carries the risk of inflation rebounding. Therefore, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to implement a "symbolic" rate cut of 25 basis points, to signal easing while maintaining policy flexibility. Overall, the probability of a rate cut in December is high, but the magnitude may be relatively moderate, aimed at balancing the fragile relationship between growth and prices.