The underlying logic of this wave of SOL market is more valuable than the price itself.

Recently, those watching SOL have been asking the same question: After the low point of 217, will it continue to fall or to da moon?

My judgment is: This is not simply a rise and fall issue, but a true reflection of the main funds.

First look at the market, then look at the fundamentals

Yesterday's trend was very interesting:

• The early session dipped to 217, with increased trading volume.
• Then quickly rebounded above 222.
• The lower shadow is obvious, which is a typical characteristic of a shakeout.

The price level of 220 is very critical—it has become a short-term support watershed. As long as it does not fall below this level, it indicates that there are buyers at the bottom.

On-chain data supports this judgment:

According to a recent report published by 21Shares, the fundamentals of the Solana ecosystem are fermenting:

• On-chain revenue reached $2.85 billion over the past year, with a monthly average of $240 million.
• In January, the meme coin craze saw monthly revenue soar to 616 million.
• Even if the market cools down, the monthly income remains stable between 150 million to 250 million.
• DeFi, AI, and DEX are the main revenue drivers.
• Publicly traded companies hold nearly $4 billion in SOL
• Multiple Solana ETFs are waiting for SEC approval, with Polymarket odds showing a 99% chance of approval by the end of the year.

What does this mean?

In a nutshell: there is real cash flow on the chain, institutions are buying in at low levels, and favorable policies are on the way. The combination of these three factors is not about speculating on concepts, but rather the fundamentals are speaking.

Technical Structure VS Capital Game

From the recent transaction distribution, the main players' strategy is as follows:

Stage One (195-210): Silent accumulation at low levels, using fluctuations to smash down prices and exchange retail investors' panic selling.

Stage Two (around 230): Surge and test resistance, release false breakout signals, induce short selling.

Phase Three (Current): Secondary bottom verification support (217), then rapid rise.

This rhythm is very familiar - first it shakes you, then cleans you, and finally pulls you up.

Key Nodes and Risk Control

Support Level: 215-220 range → If it falls below 214, reevaluation is needed.

Resistance level: 230-235 range → This is the key breakout point for this week.

Target Price: If it breaks through 235 with volume, we can look at 250-268.

Operation Framework:

• Do not chase unquantified bullish candles, only follow volume breakouts.
• Do not short strong coins against the trend
• Position control within 50% to prevent false breakouts
• Set take profit and stop loss, do not cling to the battle

Probability Simulation for This Week

Combining three factors:

1. Technical aspect: The bottom wash has basically completed, and the structure is entering the reversal preparation period.
2. News: Expectations for ETF approval + Increase in institutional holdings
3. Capital situation: The main force has completed low-level accumulation.

This week, the probability of SOL breaking through 235 is 70-80%. Once the volume breaks through, the short-term target space looks at 250-268.

Final words

The underlying logic of the SOL market movement is very clear: when the market starts pricing in ETF approval, when institutions buy in with real money at low levels, and when on-chain revenue data is right in front of us, it's just a matter of time before the price follows.

The current position is neither the top nor the bottom, but rather a transition zone from panic to certainty. Don't be scared off by short-term fluctuations, and don't go all in betting on the market.

The smart approach is: buy low and hold patiently, then gradually add after confirming the breakout. The market always rewards those who are both patient and disciplined.