I still hold the same view - this Bitcoin bull run has not reached its end.

Why do you say that? First, let's look at a few key signals:

**Market sentiment hasn't exploded at all**
Many people talk about the four-year cycle, but just look at the current market, where is the madness that should come with a bull run peak? The FOMO sentiment back in December last year was at least a hundred times stronger than now. At a real peak, retail investors should be rushing in with their eyes bloodshot.

**Gold price trend hides clues**
Gold has started to adjust after a recent surge. Historical data shows that BTC usually lags behind gold by about three months. Based on this pattern, there may be some movement this month.

**The altcoin season hasn't even arrived**
There may be individual coins that rise during a bear market, but that is not called AltSeason. Right now, only a few altcoins are bouncing, while most are still lying down. Moreover, looking back at history, there has never been a true altcoin frenzy season, so there won't be that kind of violent top.

**The liquidity environment has been misinterpreted**
To be honest, the current macro situation is more like 2019 than 2021. Interest rate cuts and quantitative easing were all actions taken in 2019. Many people think there is some kind of four-year curse, but in essence, it still follows the business cycle, so don’t overthink it.

Of course, I might also be mistaken. But these judgments are based on verifiable data. Right now I am focused on the weekly EMA-50 line, which is currently around $103,000. Since the first quarter of 2023, this line has been the boundary between bull and bear. We can talk about other things after it breaks.