Did the US government shutdown just end, and is the crypto market about to turn around? BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes recently made a bold prediction: the liquidity turning point is near, and BTC and $ZEC might see a strong rebound.

Let's start with his logic. Hayes focused on a key contradiction — from July until now, BTC has only fallen by 5%, but US dollar liquidity has evaporated by 8%. What's the problem? The US Treasury's TGA account has been "bleeding out." His forecast is this: after the government shutdown ends, the TGA account balance will decrease, and the frozen liquidity will flow back into the market, giving cryptocurrencies a chance to rebound. It sounds reasonable, but is the market really that simple?

Looking at actions in Hong Kong, they are preparing to issue virtual asset custody licenses and are working on "cross-border trading connectivity," allowing international platforms to share order books. If this works out, global capital pools could be connected, which would be a huge positive for the crypto market.

But BTC itself also faces issues. Data from Delphi Digital shows November is a critical time window. If the bull market is to continue, $98,900 could be the low point this month; but if prices fall below previous lows, the bear market structure could be confirmed. Even more concerning, EMA indicators warn of a potential bearish crossover in mid-November. Technical signals and narrative are at odds.

On the regulatory front, there are new developments. Canada, following the US GENIUS Act, plans to tighten regulation on stablecoins in the 2025 budget, requiring issuers to hold sufficient reserves. The era of "wild growth" for stablecoins seems to be ending, as compliance waves are sweeping globally.

In terms of pitfalls, Bitmine has suffered a severe blow. They followed MicroStrategy's example, heavily buying ETH, but encountered a price crash. They acquired 340,000 ETH at an average price of $3,909, now facing over $13 billion in paper losses, and their stock price has fallen 70%. The cost of blindly following trends can be brutal.

On a macro level, US Senator Cynthia Lummis publicly called for the country to establish a Bitcoin reserve to address massive debt. If this idea is adopted, the story of BTC as "digital gold" could enter a new chapter.

Returning to Hayes' "liquidity return theory," the logic makes sense, but the market has never been driven by a single factor. Regulatory frameworks are taking shape, institutional strategies are diverging, and technical signals are conflicting — the current market is pulled in many directions. The end of the government shutdown might release short-term liquidity, but to truly ignite a bull run, a fundamental shift in global macro confidence is likely needed.

So, is the end of the shutdown the trigger for a bull market, or just another liquidity illusion? The answer is still on the way.