#BitcoinPriceAnalysis

$BTC BTC/USDT: Is the road to $92k or a quick breakthrough? Chart analysis before the storm

Greetings, traders! Let's figure out what Bitcoin has in store for us. The chart shows a highly ambiguous but important technical pattern. All eyes are on key levels.

📊 Current situation:

· Price: $101,173
· Momentum: -2.06% over the last period.
· Key level: The price is right on the lower Bollinger Band (LB: $99,605). This is a critically important line.

Bearish scenario: "Road to $92k"

This scenario appears most likely in the short term, and here’s why:

1. Sellers in control: The price has not just fallen but has broken below the lower Bollinger Band. This is a classic sign of strong downward momentum.
2. Indicators in the bearish zone:
· MACD: Histogram is positive, but this is a lagging indicator. The main thing is that the DIF and DEA lines are deep in negative territory and have not turned around, confirming a downtrend.
· KDJ: All lines (K, D, J) are pointing downward, and the J-line is in the oversold zone (12.8). Usually, this signals a bounce, but in a strong trend, the indicator can stay in this zone for a long time.
· RSI: Values of 39 and 40 also indicate increasing selling pressure, not reaching extreme oversold levels.

➡️ Where to look if this scenario unfolds?
If the price fails to hold the current level $101k and consolidates below the Bollinger Band ($99,605), the next major target is around $92,000. This target is also supported by the CME gap that formed earlier and remains unclosed. Markets tend to return to "close" such gaps.

Bullish scenario: "Quick breakout"

Less probable, but not to be ruled out. For this to happen, strong fundamental reasons or large volume inflows are needed.

· What needs to happen? The price should bounce off the lower Bollinger Band as support, showing a strong rebound.
· Confirmation: Such a rebound should occur on increasing volume (current volume is above average) and be accompanied by indicator reversal. The first target for bulls is a return to the middle line of the Bollinger Bands ($103,632), then testing the upper boundary ($107,660).

Key factors and conclusions:

· CME Gap: Acts as a strong magnet for the price and adds weight to the bearish scenario targeting $92k.
· Volumes: Selling volumes (MA5: 5.89K) are high, confirming the current bearish sentiment.
· What am I doing? I am taking a wait-and-see position.
· For shorts: Waiting for confirmation of a close below $99,600 on the 1H-4H timeframe.
· For longs: I will consider long positions only after a clear bounce from current levels with targeted volume and the first signs of a MACD reversal.

Conclusion: Technical advantage on the side of bears. There is a high probability of movement downward to close the CME gap around $92,000. However, remember that the crypto market is unpredictable, and any macro news can instantly reverse the chart. Trade carefully and always use stop-losses!

⚠️This post is not financial advice. All decisions are made at your own risk.