BTC 98,000! ETH 3,154! The US stock market is crashing, the crypto world is suffering!

Last night's crypto world crash was unrelated to project fundamentals; it is essentially a "high-risk asset" dragged down by the US stock market.
According to historical patterns, after the US government restarts, the US stock market usually rebounds and strengthens within 1-2 weeks; however, this time it is completely contrary: on the first day of resumption, the three major indices plummeted, with the Nasdaq dropping over 2%, and concepts related to AI, chips, and crypto collapsing across the board, led by Nvidia and Tesla's sharp decline.
This round of fluctuations is due to two main core factors:
(1) Standstill Panic → Data Anxiety
After the government resumes work, the accumulated macro data (such as non-farm payrolls and retail sales for September and October) will be released in concentration, directly influencing the expectations of whether there will still be interest rate cuts within the year.
Federal Reserve officials have continuously taken a hawkish stance, causing the probability of a rate cut in December to plummet from 69% to 52%. The market has quickly repriced, and risk assets based on "rate cut trades" have sharply retraced, with Bitcoin falling below the $100,000 mark once again.
(2) Alibaba Qwen News Sparks AI Panic
Alibaba upgraded "Tongyi" and renamed it "Qwen", announcing the launch of GPT-like agent-based AI.
Wall Street is worried that China's AI is accelerating its catch-up, impacting the globe with an open-source + free model, diluting the returns on the huge investments made by American tech giants.
Overlay Meta's cash flow under pressure, Oracle's capital expenditures soar, cloud giants expand their data center debts, and shorts amplify panic ahead of NVIDIA's earnings report, in conjunction with quantitative funds dumping.
The real game changer for the year-end market: liquidity!
The government's opening means a restart of fiscal policy, and there will be a massive fiscal injection in the next two months; it is also difficult to avoid stimulus efforts before the midterm elections.
Multiple officials hinted that a decline in the reserve requirement ratio may force the Federal Reserve to passively expand its balance sheet.
Therefore, the key is not whether to "raise or lower interest rates," but rather the speed of liquidity replenishment. The turmoil at the end of October has prompted the Federal Reserve to activate temporary tools to inject liquidity, and there are still variables regarding a rate cut in December.
Technical aspect: More like a deep wash before the end of the year.
The US stock market and crypto world indicators have generally broken down, with the Nasdaq falling to the 50-day moving average:
• If it holds, the bulls still have room to fight back;
• If it falls below, it will enter a technical adjustment.
Short sellers chose to crash the market on the first day the government reopened, which can be described as a classic psychological warfare:
Both harvesting the bullish trend of "price will rise as soon as the market opens" and cleaning up floating capital for the year-end market.
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