98,000! Has Bitcoin crashed? Is the bull run really over?

$BTC $ETH $GUSD
1. Core conclusion: We are currently in a mid-cycle adjustment of the bull run, not at the end.
1. Reasons for the short-term decline: The drop below 98,000 is the result of the resonance of triple pressure from macro tightening, on-chain selling pressure, and ETF outflows, and it does not indicate a trend reversal—The cooling of expectations for interest rate cuts in the U.S. has triggered a sell-off of risk assets, with long-term holders (LTH) selling 815,000 Bitcoins in 30 days, and U.S. Bitcoin ETFs experiencing a net outflow of $1.17 billion for two consecutive weeks, collectively leading to short-term panic.
2. Mid-term support signal: The current "Fear and Greed Index" has dropped to 15 (extreme fear), and historically this value has often been a mid-term adjustment bottom; similar levels of profit-taking pressure also appeared during the mid-term of the bull runs in 2020 and 2021, which ultimately ended with a rebound after adjustments. The current market characteristics are highly consistent with the "deep washout in the mid-term of a bull run."
3. The long-term upward logic remains unchanged: 2026 will welcome the "macro interest rate cuts + institutional funds entering the market + halving cycle" triple resonance. This is the core driving factor of the three large bull runs in Bitcoin's history (2013, 2017, 2021). The market's target price expectation for 2026 is between $160,000 and $320,000, and the long-term trend remains solid.
2. Operational Suggestions (Short-term / Medium to Long-term)
1. Short-term operations (1-3 months): Be cautious and observe, do not blindly catch the bottom.
• Key support and resistance: Be wary of the validity of the $95,000 support level; if it breaks, it may further drop to $90,000 - $74,000. The short-term resistance level is $110,000, and before it breaks, it should be viewed as a fluctuation.
• Operating Strategy: Those in cash are advised to wait and see, avoiding entry before the leverage liquidation is over (there is still liquidation pressure); those with positions should strictly set stop losses (below $95,000), do not hold the position, and do not chase short-term rebounds.
2. Medium to long-term operations (6-18 months): patiently wait for the layout window.
• Layout signal: Enter the market again only when one of the three major conditions appears — ETF resumes continuous net inflow, U.S. fiscal stimulus is implemented, and U.S. Treasury yields decline (liquidity improves). These signals are expected to become more likely to appear in early 2026.
• Position suggestion: Medium to long-term investors can accumulate positions in batches within the range of 90,000 to 74,000 USD, with each position not exceeding 5% of the total funds, to avoid full positions at once #广场发币瓜分千U奖池 .