#数字货币市场调整 Why has the market collapsed again? On November 13, the U.S. government ended its 40-day shutdown, which was supposed to be a moment for favourable information to be realized. As a result, Bitcoin plummeted below the 100,000-dollar mark, and U.S. stocks and encryption assets also took a dive. Do you understand this plot?

Looking back at the government's restart in 2019, $BTC surged threefold within five months. Why doesn't it work this time? The answer is actually quite straightforward — the news had already been priced in. When everyone knows the government will restart, the restart itself is no longer a surprise, but rather a signal for profit-taking. Short-term leveraged liquidations triggered a chain reaction, but on-chain data shows that long-term holders remain as steady as a rock and are not selling at all.
What truly deserves attention is not the happenings at the White House, but the actions of the Federal Reserve. On October 29, the second rate cut was implemented, with the interest rate range lowered to 3.75%-4.00%. The market widely expects another cut in December. More importantly, quantitative tightening (QT) has officially ceased, and the balance sheet stops shrinking. Some institutions have even begun to bet that quantitative easing (QE) will make a comeback to cover the fiscal deficit.
Historical data shows that Bitcoin prices are highly correlated with global M2 money supply. Once liquidity is injected, the question is not whether it will rise, but by how much. In contrast, the government's reinitiation of such political noise is simply not on the same level.
From a cyclical perspective, we are still in the middle of a bull market. The upward channel after the halving in 2024 still exists, and the futures funding rate has quickly returned to normal levels, which is a sign of healthy adjustment, not the beginning of a bear market. In the short term, $100,000 will be a battleground for intense competition between bulls and bears, and the volatility will inevitably be severe. However, the medium to long-term logic has not changed: the Federal Reserve is the core of pricing, and the combination of the interest rate cut cycle and liquidity easing expectations means that the current fluctuations are, in fact, a window for accumulating positions.
Of course, there are also risks. If the AI sector's bubble bursts and triggers systemic risk aversion, a plummet similar to that in March 2020 may recur. But even if it happens, it would be a buying opportunity, not a doomsday signal.
The market is never short of noise; what it lacks is an accurate judgment of macro signals. Government restart? A trivial matter. The real protagonist has always been the central bank's printing press.