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Last night, the three major U.S. stock indices staged another performance of rising and then falling back. The market's pessimistic sentiment hasn't dissipated yet, and there hasn't been any sign of where the money is flowing.
The US Dollar Index is still climbing, but bond yields are dropping. What does this indicate? There is still a strong risk aversion, and people are hesitant to take unnecessary risks.
Everyone is currently focused on two things: Will there be a rate cut in December? When will liquidity loosen?
Trump finally couldn't hold back and directly fired at Powell, even stating that he has someone in mind for the new chairman position. If this person does make an appearance, it might ease the market's anxiety over interest rate cuts. However, that being said, even if Trump has settled on someone now, Powell's term won't end until mid-May 2026.
This week, there are a lot of macro events happening, so the volatility is definitely going to be significant, and we need to prepare ourselves mentally.
NVIDIA is set to release its financial report on Thursday. Right now, the AI situation basically depends on NVIDIA's performance. If the financial report exceeds expectations, the recent decline in tech stocks might ease up a bit.
In addition, the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes and non-farm data will also be released intensively.
However, there is a somewhat reassuring piece of news - as of November 17, the balance of the TGA account of the U.S. government decreased by $30 billion for the first time since it was rebooted. This means that liquidity has finally started to be released.
To put it broadly, nowadays fiat currencies are everywhere, and all over the world, there is actually silent monetary easing going on.
The U.S. is preparing to issue $2000 stimulus checks.
Japan is organizing a $110 billion stimulus plan;
China approved a $1.4 trillion package plan;
The wave of liquidity is coming like a storm, and we need to continue observing how the market will move next.