November 19, 2025

Looking at the market trends and related data over the past couple of days, especially the funding rates, many have already turned negative. From this perspective, the recent oversold positions are quite severe. Of course, given such poor price performance, we can only hope for a decent short-term rebound, but from the funding rates, this price is not the bottom, and there isn't much room for further decline. Another point is that the Fear and Greed Index has dropped to single digits. Although the accuracy of this data has significantly decreased in this round of the bull market, it still shows that the market's fear sentiment is very serious.
Additionally, there is a potential huge selling pressure on Bitcoin, as the UK government has seized a significant amount of Bitcoin. When the German government sold some coins in the past, it caused short-term negative impacts on the market. If this batch of BTC hits the market, considering the current poor liquidity, the actual impact will be even greater than last time. According to media reports, there are a total of 61,000 Bitcoins, with a total value exceeding 5 billion USD. However, there has not yet been an official sale announcement, only some rumors in the market trying to find buyers.
Regardless of the circumstances, the current price is still somewhat attractive compared to a few months ago. BTC has pulled back by 30%, Ethereum is just a few hundred dollars away from being halved compared to its peak, and the decline in altcoins is even more pronounced. Based on the decrease in price alone, it definitely cannot be considered a bull market right now; one might even say we are already halfway into a bear market. In terms of trends, there are no obvious bottom consolidation signals at the moment, so I do not recommend taking large positions to catch the bottom right now, however,