#FOMCMeetingMinutesComingUp

📊🗽The Fed in the Fog: A Blind Game Before the Decisive Meeting

What a twist! This week, everyone is waiting for the minutes of the FOMC meeting, but the real bomb has already exploded. The situation with the Federal Reserve is starting to resemble a detective story with a missing clue. Let's figure out why the December rate decision has become the most unpredictable game of the year.

1. Missing Report: The Fed is Flying Blind

The most important news that many underestimated: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has canceled the October non-farm payroll report. This is not just a "postponement." It means that Federal Reserve officials will hold their December meeting without key labor market data for two consecutive months!

· What does this mean? The Fed has been deprived of its main navigator. The decision on whether to lower rates to cool the economy or, on the contrary, to fight inflation will be made in an information vacuum. This is an unprecedented level of uncertainty.

2. Bets are falling: markets are losing faith in the decline

It is not surprising that following this news, the probability of a rate cut in December according to CME FedWatch has plummeted to 36.2%. Just a couple of weeks ago, everyone was confident about this, but now the chances are slightly better than tossing a coin. Markets understand: without data, the Fed will not make abrupt moves. The play for an increase is postponed.

3. Political pressure: Trump begins the attack

Against this backdrop, Donald Trump is making headlines with another round of sharp criticism aimed at Jerome Powell. The phrase "I want to fire Powell, he is extremely incompetent" is not just loud words. It is direct political pressure on the independence of the Federal Reserve at the most delicate moment. Trump clearly hints that interest rates, in his opinion, should be lower, and he will use this as a trump card in his campaign.

4. Internal Divisions: The Voice of the "Hawk" within the Fed

And while Trump is pressuring from the outside, within the Fed there are its own "hawkish" notes. Board member Christopher Waller stated that he supports the natural reduction of the balance (QT). Moreover, he would like to end QT immediately. This shows deep divisions within the Committee: some are thinking about possible easing, while others are still focused on combating inflation by reducing liquidity.

Conclusion: The Perfect Storm of Uncertainty

The situation is unique:

· There is no data to make an informed decision.
Political risks are rising, undermining trust in the Federal Reserve.
Inside the Fed, there is no unity.

The minutes of this week's meeting will be scrutinized for any hints on how the Fed will act under these conditions. But one thing is clear: the December meeting will not be about data, but about instincts, risks, and political will.

Your turn: What do you think Powell will do? Will he show caution and leave everything as it is, yielding to political pressure, or will he dare to cut a corner in complete darkness?

P.S. This post is not an investment recommendation, but an analysis of the information field. Trade cautiously, there is significant turbulence ahead!🎢🎢🎢🎢🎢