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Don't remind me again today

What exactly is going on with this big dump? To put it simply, it’s just a few unfortunate events happening at the same time.



Let's talk about the Fed first. Previously, everyone thought there would be a rate cut in the fourth quarter of this year, right? As a result, the inflation data just won't come down, and the core PCE stubbornly hovers above the 2% target. Powell directly stated in November that interest rates need to remain high. The data from the CME is even harsher; traders are now only giving a 30% chance of a rate cut in December, whereas a month ago that number was still 94%.

What about institutional funds? They are fleeing faster than anyone else. The US spot Bitcoin ETFs have been bleeding for five consecutive weeks, with a total outflow of $2.6 billion. BlackRock's IBIT withdrew $420 million in just one week, which is its worst record since its establishment.

Market sentiment has also collapsed. The Fear and Greed Index has plummeted to 16, which is definitely "extreme fear." Social media is abuzz with "Bitcoin big dump."
BTC-2.82%
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MidnightGenesisvip
· 11h ago
On-chain data shows that the bleeding pattern of ETFs over these five weeks is quite interesting. BlackRock's single-week withdrawal of 420 million is not random. Based on past experience, such institutional actions usually indicate a deeper risk reassessment. It's worth noting that the timing of the withdrawal deviates from the release of PCE data. From the code, Powell's statements are just the trigger. Monitoring shows that the market's fear index reaching 16 is not considered bottomed out. My observation is that institutions haven't fully exited yet. What's interesting is how many retail investors are still catching the falling knives. As expected, the rate cut expectation dropped from 94% directly to 30%. The contract changes behind this shift should have shown signs long ago.
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ForumMiningMastervip
· 11-20 10:52
Damn, this guy Powell is really incredible, saying he won't cut rates and the institutions just rug pull, and we retail investors are left to catch a falling knife. 94% to 30%, it's hilarious, this contrast is really something. BlackRock directly pulled out 420 million, how ruthless is that speed? Inflation just can't be suppressed no matter what, looks like we still have to endure. Fear index at 16, those buying now must really be believers.
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GasGuzzlervip
· 11-20 10:30
Powell this guy is really something, what happened to the promised interest rate cuts? We were all fooled. The Fed still wants to keep sucking blood, institutions have already done a Rug Pull, 2.6 billion dollars just disappeared. Greed index at 16, those who are entering the market now are true warriors or truly foolish, I can't tell the difference. The ETF has been bleeding for five weeks, BlackRock's 420 million outflow is really something, what is this telling us? People say big dump is a bad thing, but I think it's an opportunity, it just depends on who can hold on till the end. This round of sell with bearish market feels even harsher than the last time, the monster of inflation is still not giving up. The bottom hasn't appeared yet, my principal is trembling in fear...
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