Latest news from the Federal Reserve‼️

1. Interest Rate Adjustment and Subsequent Expectations: The October meeting passed a resolution with 10 votes in favor and 2 against, marking the second rate cut of the year by 25 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate target range down to 3.75%-4.00%. Due to the delayed release of the meeting minutes and key economic data, market expectations for a rate cut in December plummeted. The CME "FedWatch" tool shows that as of the 20th, the probability of maintaining the rate in December has risen to 67.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut has dropped to 32.7%.

2. The tapering plan has been terminated early: The minutes announced that the reduction of the holdings of securities in the system's open market accounts will officially cease on December 1, a decision supported by almost all members present, as the current reserves in the banking system are close to the lower limit of "adequate levels," and continuing to taper may exacerbate market volatility.

3. Significant internal policy differences: Officials are in intense dispute over the policy direction for December. Hawks are concerned that unstable inflation and geopolitical conflicts may drive up energy prices, opposing interest rate cuts; doves warn of economic downturn risks and believe that timely rate cuts are necessary to prevent rising unemployment. In addition, during the October vote, members advocated for a large rate cut of 50 basis points and maintaining the interest rate unchanged.

4. Beware of financial and data risks: Several officials have mentioned that the valuation of AI-related assets is too high. If the market reassesses their profit prospects, it could lead to a chaotic decline in stock prices. At the same time, due to the partial shutdown of certain federal government agencies, the October non-farm payroll report has been canceled, and the November data will be delayed until December 16. This will put the Federal Reserve in a "lack of information dilemma" for its December meeting.

5. Market triggers extreme volatility: Influenced by the minutes, on November 20, the US dollar index opened higher with a gap, reaching a three-month high, with an intraday peak of 106.32; US stocks faced downward pressure, with the Dow Jones falling 326 points that day, the S&P 500 index down 1.2%, and the Nasdaq down 1.8%; the yield on the 10-year US Treasury rose by 12 basis points to 4.92%, reaching its highest level since 2007. #逆势上涨币种推荐 $BTC #比特币行情观察