When will Bitcoin welcome a turnaround? A deep analysis of the four key conditions needed for a pump!

The current Bitcoin market is overshadowed by pessimism: PSIP (Profit Supply Percentage) has fallen below 70%, ETF funds continue to flow out, and the price is under pressure around $92,000. However, historical experience shows that extreme fear often breeds significant opportunities.

If Bitcoin wants to restart its pump trend, it may require the following four conditions to work together:

1. The U.S. government "liquidity release"

After 43 days of government shutdown, the balance of TGA (Treasury General Account) has accumulated to $959 billion, far above normal levels. The release of this "reservoir" will become a key source of market liquidity:

· Short-term impact: The government's issuance of $16 billion in wages (to be completed by November 20) has limited effects on liquidity;
· Key point: Starting in early December, TGA accounts will fluctuate significantly with normal fiscal spending, with an expected injection of hundreds of billions of dollars into the financial system;
· Historical reference: After the end of the government shutdown in 2019, the TGA released $211 billion within a month, driving Bitcoin to rise 35% in 30 days. This potential release scale is larger (base of $959 billion), and the liquidity spillover effect is worth looking forward to.

2. The Federal Reserve's policy shifts to "substantive easing"

Current market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts continue to cool, but the medium to long-term easing trend remains unchanged:

· Short-term dilemma: The probability of a rate cut in December is only 36.2%, and the missing employment data in October exacerbates policy uncertainty;
· Turning point clues:
· December 16: If the merged release of the employment data for October-November shows weakness, it may restart rate cut expectations;
· January 2026: The current probability of interest rate cuts is 48%, the highest point for next year;
· Global Linkage: The ECB may cut interest rates in December (inflation has dropped to 2.1%), and historical data shows that the correlation between ECB rate cuts and Bitcoin pumps is as high as 0.85.

3. Economic data "substantial improvement"

The U.S. economy is showing a "K-shaped divergence" and needs to break through the following bottlenecks:

· Positive signals: The trade deficit narrowed to $59.6 billion in August, expected to drive Q3 GDP growth to 3.8%;
· Core Risk:
· Beef prices rose by 18.4% year-on-year, and food inflation continues to suppress consumer confidence;
· The government shutdown caused a 1.5 percentage point loss in Q4 GDP, and the consumer confidence index fell to 50.4;
· Key Observation: If fiscal stimulus can effectively boost demand among low-income groups and break the "K-shaped economy" deadlock, risk assets will gain fundamental support.

IV. Institutional funds "return to the battlefield"

ETF capital flows are the most direct catalyst for the rise:

· Current Situation Interpretation: Recently, there was a net outflow of 2 billion USD in a single week (the highest since February), reflecting a short-term risk-averse sentiment among institutions.
· Reversal signal:
1. Continuous net inflow for 3 days: historically, the average rise in the following 60-100 days reaches 60-70%;
2. Daily inflow exceeds 500 million USD: a sign of large institutions actively building positions;
3. AUM share rebounds to over 8%: currently only 6.6%, breaking through 8% indicates that institutional allocation strength surpasses price growth;
· Behavioral Logic: Institutional investors exhibit a "herding effect"; once the trend reverses, funds will accelerate back into the market.

Five Key Time Nodes

1. December 10 (FOMC Meeting): Even without a rate cut, dovish signals can stabilize the market;
2. December 16 (employment data): If the data is weak, it will strengthen the expectation of interest rate cuts in early 2026;
3. Late December (seasonal liquidity): year-end institutional reallocation + low trading volume amplifying volatility;
4. Q1 2026 (Global Easing Window): If multiple central banks coordinate easing, it may recreate the liquidity-driven market of 2020;
5. PSIP drops below 50% (Deep Bear Signal): If the price falls to the $60,000-$70,000 range, it will be a long-term layout golden pit.

The market is currently under the dual pressure of a "liquidity vacuum" and "policy confusion," but a turning point is faintly visible. Investors should focus on the macro data combination in mid-December (TGA release + FOMC guidance + employment report), as these factors may combine to drive Bitcoin out of the current predicament. In the deep bear market, maintaining patience and rationality is essential to seize the opportunities granted by the cycle.

Data source: UPPD, CME Federal Reserve Watch, U.S. Department of the Treasury
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