Independent Researcher: $610 Billion AI Ponzi Scheme Collapses

On November 21, financial market independent researcher Shanaka Anslem Perera published an article stating that yesterday, an unprecedented upheaval occurred. Nvidia's stock price soared 5% after the earnings report but fell into negative territory within 18 hours. Wall Street algorithms detected anomalies that humans failed to notice: serious contradictions in the financial data. The specific findings are as follows: Nvidia's accounts receivable skyrocketed 89% to $33.4 billion in one year, the payment cycle extended from 46 days to 53 days, and inventory chips surged 32% to $19.8 billion during the same period. The $19.3 billion profit only generated $14.5 billion in cash flow, a conversion rate of 75%, far below the industry average of 95%, with a gap of $4.8 billion reaching crisis levels. The AI ecosystem's funding closed loop was exposed: Nvidia injected $2 billion into xAI, xAI borrowed $12.5 billion to buy Nvidia chips; Microsoft invested $13 billion in OpenAI, which promised to spend $50 billion on Azure, and Microsoft then placed orders worth $100 billion with Nvidia; Oracle provided OpenAI with a $300 billion cloud credit, and OpenAI then bought Nvidia chips for Oracle. The same amount of money is repeatedly counted as revenue, but the cash has never actually materialized. Smart money has fled: Peter Thiel sold $100 million in Nvidia stock on November 9, SoftBank liquidated $5.8 billion in stock on November 11, and Michael Burry bought March 2026 put options for Nvidia at $140. Bitcoin fell from $126,000 to $86,000, and analysts warned that if Nvidia falls another 40%, it will trigger $23 billion in Bitcoin liquidation, leading to a crypto market avalanche. The timeline is set: in February 2026, the earnings report will reveal bad debts, in March the credit rating will be downgraded, and in April the first financial restatement will occur. Nvidia's fair value is $71, currently at $186, overvalued by 162%. The countdown to the collapse of the AI bubble has begun in 90 days. Overall, Perera holds a cautious attitude towards central bank intervention, geopolitical friction, and concentrated technology risks. He advises investors to turn to assets driven by 'thermodynamics and game theory' rather than nostalgic reliance on central banks.