The market is screaming.

Just looked at some data—BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, DOGE are all rebounding in the short term, RSI is running hot, prices are above the EMA20. But switching to the 4-hour chart, it’s all negative MACD, oversold RSI, and prices far below the 20 and 50 lines.

It’s like hearing two completely different songs playing at the same time. The short-term melody is fast and attractive, but the underlying chords are still heading down.

Fear Index has dropped to 11—extreme fear. This number is interesting; extreme fear is often a contrarian signal for opportunity, but more often, it’s warning you of a trap. Panic usually comes with cascading liquidations and chaotic selling, and sometimes it needs to drop even further before it can truly stabilize.

My habit is to wait until the rhythm is right before making a move. At this point, the rhythm is too chaotic—short-term wants to surge upward, mid-term is still being pressured downward, and open interest is shrinking. It’s not that it will definitely keep dropping, but that the “comfortable entry point” hasn’t arrived yet.

My account is all cash now, not a cent of margin in use. I’ll keep it that way and wait for the market rhythm to settle. Sometimes the best trades are the ones that look cold and boring.

Continuing to observe.
()#观望 #控风险