Token Unlock Alert: $31.3B Flooding Crypto Markets in February 2025

February is shaping up to be a major liquidity event for crypto. Over $31.3 billion in token unlocks are about to hit the market, with some potentially game-changing implications for price stability and trading dynamics.

The Big Picture

This isn’t just about volume—it’s about who’s unlocking and how much. Here’s what matters:

Major Players in the Unlock Calendar:

• Ripple (XRP): 400M tokens ($1.13B) unlocked Feb 2, but most stay in escrow—this is the smart move to prevent dumps
• Sui Network (SUI): 64M tokens ($51M) hitting Feb 3, representing 2.6% of circulating supply—watch for pressure
• Jito Labs (JTO): 11.3M tokens unlocked Feb 7—supply expansion of 5.9% on circulating supply could trigger volatility
• Galxe (GAL): 5.18M tokens Feb 5
• TARS AI (TAI): 26.7M tokens Feb 2
• Neutron (NTRN): 9.96M tokens Feb 3

Why This Matters

Token unlocks come in two flavors:

1. Linear Unlocks: Tokens release gradually throughout the month = predictable supply pressure, easier to absorb
2. Cliff Unlocks: Massive dumps all at once = potential flash crashes and panic selling

The real risk? When a small percentage of total supply is in circulation, unlocks can cause severe dilution. SUI at 2.6% of circulating supply is significant; JTO’s 5.9% hit could move the needle harder.

Supply Math 101

Don’t just look at dollar amounts—check the percentages:

• $SAND: 8.4% of circulating supply unlocking (8.8% of total) = major potential pressure
• $JTO: 5.9% circulating unlock = material dilution
• $DOGE: Despite $1.514B unlock, only 0.3% of supply—low impact

Smaller circulating supplies + large percentage unlocks = higher volatility risk.

What Traders Should Watch

Next 7 Days (Feb 2-7):

• Feb 2: XRP + TAI double unlock—but XRP escrow strategy limits damage
• Feb 3: SUI + NTRN simultaneous unlocks—potential liquidation levels to watch
• Feb 5: GAL unlock
• Feb 7: JTO unlock—highest percentage risk in early February

Later in Month:

• XDC, NEON, GGP, AGI, MAVIA, SPELL all have scheduled unlocks
• $49M XDC unlock coming—progressive supply increase
• Over $70M in combined unlocks next week alone

The Strategy

Historically, markets either:

1. Fade the unlock (anticipate and sell before event)
2. Buy the dip (if fundamentals intact, accumulate after fear sells off)
3. Range-trade (catch bounces between resistance/support)

Key insight: Most institutional holders use gradual vesting or escrow to minimize market shock—if you see 50%+ of tokens locked up post-unlock, that’s actually bullish signal. If they hit the market immediately? Red flag.

Bottom Line

February’s unlock calendar is stacked, but don’t panic blindly. Focus on:

• Percentage of circulating supply (bigger % = bigger risk)
• Token distribution method (escrow = safer than immediate release)
• Project fundamentals (still building? Or already priced in the unlock?)

These events create volatility—and volatility creates opportunity. Just do your homework on which unlocks are actually market-moving vs. noise.