To get straight to the point: This BTC pullback is not the end of the bull market, but rather a classic "high-level shakeout and redistribution."



The data from the past month has indeed been quite strange—

The price hasn't dropped to a point of despair, yet various indicators are creating an "apocalyptic atmosphere":

The Fear & Greed Index has plunged to 23, deep in the extreme fear zone; the drawdown is -32%, one of the deepest since 2021; $90.4 million in long positions liquidated in 24 hours; ETFs have seen phased capital outflows; exchanges have had a net inflow of only 145 BTC in 24 hours, showing almost zero retail buying interest.

Even more dramatic, a whale address dormant for 14 years suddenly woke up and transferred 1,000 BTC.

But if you look closely at the on-chain activity—

None of these "scary signals" match the true characteristics of a market top.

On the contrary, all signs point in the same direction: major players are using volatility to flush out weak-handed holders, while quietly redistributing tokens.

The logic behind this round of redistribution is simple:
Shift tokens from "emotional retail investors" to "capital that can withstand extreme volatility."

The risk aversion model is nearing a high-risk value of 60, and combined with extreme fear sentiment, it creates the perfect "discouragement environment." Meanwhile, old on-chain addresses are becoming active and large transfers are frequent—moves that usually indicate big money is repositioning.

In simple terms:
The price is dropping, but the structure remains; sentiment is collapsing, but the underlying logic hasn't changed.

This is the most frightening part—when every indicator in the market is telling you "it's time to run," the real opportunity may just be starting to emerge.
BTC2.57%
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rekt_but_not_brokevip
· 12-06 21:05
To put it simply, institutions are just harvesting retail investors; all the small investors have been scared off, and the chips are conveniently transferring into the hands of the big players.
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ShitcoinArbitrageurvip
· 12-06 06:52
Here we go again? The same old story of the main players shaking out weak hands always manages to trick some people into buying in. --- Wait, a whale just moved 1,000? That’s the real key point here. --- A fear index of 23 is insane. This is actually the time to see if any real big money is coming in. --- Retail investors have zero willingness to buy the dip, which shows this shakeout really scared people. Have the main players achieved their goal? --- I believe in the increased activity of old addresses on-chain, but who actually dares to put real money in? --- The price is dropping but the structure is still intact? Sounds like just an excuse not to sell at a loss. --- Moving 1,000 Bitcoin out—either a big player is cashing out, or it’s really a major repositioning. Either way, I can’t afford to gamble on it.
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GweiTooHighvip
· 12-06 06:47
Bro, this analysis is spot on. I'm exactly that retail investor who got shaken out... Now I'm watching on-chain whales buying while I'm left eating dirt.
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FastLeavervip
· 12-06 06:36
Damn, isn't this just filtering out the noobs? Scaring off the clueless ones and putting the chips into the hands of smart money.
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governance_lurkervip
· 12-06 06:27
Oh my, it's the same old rhetoric again. Why am I so easily brainwashed?
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