Many people are convinced that BTC will continue to soar, and the reason is nothing more than this: the Fed is about to cut interest rates, and how could prices fall during an interest rate cut cycle?

But have you ever considered this—

From 2023 to 2025, over these three years, Bitcoin surged from $16,000 all the way to $110,000 in an environment of quantitative tightening and interest rate hikes. By conventional logic, shouldn’t it have fallen?

If prices can rise during rate hikes and also rise during rate cuts, what kind of signal do these policies actually send? To put it bluntly, macro policy is more like the background of the stage, not the direction of the script.

What the market truly cares about has never been whether the Fed holds a meeting or cuts rates, but three things: when liquidity will loosen, when market expectations will shift, and when big money is willing to step in and take over.

So those simplistic conclusions like "rate hikes = bearish" and "rate cuts = bullish" simply don’t hold water in a market as highly sensitive to capital as crypto.

Whether the market rises or not doesn’t hinge on a particular headline, but rather on this: capital needs an outlet, and Bitcoin just happens to be the most convenient target.

That’s also why the same rate hike cycle can produce all-time highs. Conversely, it’s also possible for Bitcoin to enter a bear market during an interest rate cut cycle.