#FedRateCutPrediction

FedRateCutPrediction 💰
This week, we enter the final Fed meeting of the year. Markets are already pricing in an 87% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut. If this cut materializes, will it fuel a year-end rally? Here's my perspective

Current Situation:
- The US economy is showing signs of slowing, the labor market is softening.
- Inflation remains sticky, and there are disagreements within the Fed.
- On the crypto side, Bitcoin has surpassed $90,000, but volatility is inevitable after the decision.
- Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures are already pricing in a dovish scenario.

My Prediction:
The Fed will cut rates by 25 bps at this meeting. This decision will increase risk appetite in the short term, and we will see a rise in stocks and cryptocurrencies. However, volatility is inevitable in the medium term.
My Strategy:
I'm gradually entering technology and financial stocks.
While capitalizing on the crypto rally, I'm limiting my risk with a stop-loss.

I expect short-term strength in emerging market currencies as the USD weakens.
Risks:
Divisions within the Fed could alter the perception of the decision.
Persistent inflation could prompt new interest rate hikes.
A "buy the rumor, sell the news" effect could be seen in the crypto market.

A positive reaction in the short term and a volatile journey await us in the medium term.