The prelude to this bear market may come earlier than you think.

Looking back at the previous cycle: Huobi changed hands and FTX collapsed. According to this rhythm, there will be a wave of platforms that will have accidents one after another - bankruptcy and running away. Remember Luna's epic crash? This time, it was the turn of DeFi projects to explode in batches. When Bitcoin really falls by 50%, 90% of altcoins evaporate directly, and now there is a lack of a tipping point.

Many people don't believe in cycles. But the data is there: the 18th month after the halving is usually the apex. The halving will be on April 20, 2024, pushed back 18 months, and will fall exactly around October 7, 2025. According to this algorithm, BTC may touch $126,000 - that position is likely to be the dividing line between bulls and bears.

What about after that? 12-month decline cycle.

The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points this month, and this year's balance sheet reduction may also stop, but it cannot stop the trend. In the last round, BTC fell by 77%, and this wave should not be so bad, with a high probability of falling between $30,000 and $60,000. Even, BTC below 30,000 may really be history. There is a high probability that it will bottom out at the end of 2026, when it will fall below the previous high of 69,000 in 2021 and fall in the range of 3-50,000.

The panic index falls to about 10, which is basically a dip buying signal - just like when the 1011 plummeted, the time to close your eyes and stud.

Myself? It has been liquidated, but the mentality is okay. The next step is to see if Perp can turn around, anyway, I will always be optimistic.

Friends who are good at mathematics should be able to calculate: this wave of BTC will not rush to 200,000, but the bear market is likely to break 60,000. How to choose? Weigh it yourself.