Rate cuts are here, but don't celebrate too early — the Federal Reserve is playing a game of "reward and hit."

On December 11, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut, bringing the federal funds rate to 3.50%-3.75%. This is the third cut since July this year, totaling a 75 basis point reduction. Sounds pretty good? Don't pop the champagne just yet.

The real concern is in the dot plot: they only plan to cut another 50 basis points in 2026, which means two more cuts. The market was hoping for more aggressive easing, but the Fed just poured cold water on that idea.

Why so cautious? Just look at the data. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September, indicating a bit of a slowdown; but the core PCE price index still hovers at 2.8%, well above the target. The Fed is walking a tightrope — loosen too quickly, and inflation could rebound; tighten too much, and the economy could stall.

There's also internal disagreement. Out of 12 voting members, 5 are outright skeptical about further rate cuts. Powell is clearly trying to keep everyone guessing: giving dovish signals on rate cuts for face, while hinting at hawkish expectations behind the scenes.

What does this mean for the market? Easing is off the table for now. The dollar can stay strong in the short term, the RMB might face pressure, and global stock markets could tremble a bit.

As for the crypto market, whether ETH can take off depends on what the Fed does next. Right now, the market is getting used to "events" — every FOMC meeting could be the start of a new rollercoaster.